Giants at Broncos: Can Dart Keep the Magic Going in Denver?

Sunday, October 19, 2025 | 4:05 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High Betting Line: Broncos -7 | Total: 40.5 (MyBookie)

All eyes will be on Jaxson Dart and the Giants this Sunday to see if the rookie QB can continue his magic for a second consecutive week. He looked sharp against the Eagles and certainly gave the Giants and their fans the lift they’ve been looking for. Word of caution to the Giants and their fans – usually these breakout rookie performances are followed by coming back down to earth for a bit, but the kid sure looks like he has a future.

The Broncos’ Narrow Margin Pattern

When you look at the Broncos’ results this year so far, what stands out is that while they are tied for first in the AFC West, they don’t put much distance between themselves and their opponents on the scoreboard. With the exception of blowing out the Bengals, they have an 8-point win over the Titans and the rest of their games – wins and losses – were decided by 4 points or less, including the 13-11 win over the Jets last week.

This pattern becomes particularly relevant when considering the spread. The Broncos are 4-2 straight up but haven’t been covering machines, especially after wins where they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five following a win. Meanwhile, the Giants have covered the spread in five of their last six Week 7 games as underdogs.

Tale of Two Defenses

The matchup presents a clear contrast in defensive capabilities. Denver’s defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 15.8 points per game. They lead the league with 30 sacks – a full 10 more than any other team – with edge rusher Nik Bonitto pacing the league with 8.0 sacks. The unit ranks second in scoring defense, third in passing defense (165.2 YPG), and sixth against the run (89.0 YPG).

The Giants’ defense sits on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 28th in total defense (370.8 YPG) and 20th in scoring defense (24.0 PPG). They’ve struggled particularly against the pass, allowing 242 yards per game through the air.

Dart’s First True Road Test

While Dart has been impressive in his two home wins as a starter – beating the Chargers and Eagles without a turnover – his one road start tells a different story. He threw two costly interceptions in a loss, and now faces his toughest challenge yet. Denver’s defense has been particularly effective at limiting quarterback mobility, allowing just 46 rushing yards to opposing QBs all season despite facing mobile threats like Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones.

This could neutralize one of Dart’s biggest weapons – his ability to extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs. The Broncos’ pass rush, which pressures opposing quarterbacks on 33.8% of dropbacks (league-best), will test whether the Giants’ improved offensive line play with Andrew Thomas can hold up.

The Running Game Battle

Both teams lean on their ground games, with Denver ranking seventh in rushing offense (130.2 YPG) and the Giants ninth (126.2 YPG). The difference comes in the trenches – Denver’s offensive line has allowed just six sacks all season, second-best in the league, while their defense has been stout against the run.

Cam Skattebo has been the Giants’ workhorse, rushing for 338 yards and five touchdowns on 82 carries. His bruising style and three-touchdown performance against the Eagles showed what he’s capable of, but Denver’s run defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry presents a significant challenge.

Situational Trends Worth Noting

The home/road splits paint an interesting picture. The Broncos have won each of their last seven home games, while the Giants have dropped seven straight road games against AFC opponents on winning streaks. However, Denver’s home performances after wins haven’t been dominant – they’ve lost the first quarter in four of their last five home games following a win.

The scheduling also favors New York slightly. The Giants are coming off a mini-bye after playing Thursday night, while Denver is still adjusting from their London trip and an ugly 13-11 win over the Jets that required nine sacks just to escape with a win.

The Betting Angle

Considering those results and then taking into account the Giants’ newfound enthusiasm, it’s tough not to grab the touchdown with the Giants in this one. The Broncos’ success in 2025 is largely built on a dominant, league-leading defense that excels at getting to the quarterback and stopping opponents in key situations. Their offense is competent but does not rank in the top half of the league in most scoring metrics.

We think the Broncos win this one but we’re not sure about the cover. We’ve mentioned in other articles about using teams as a leg in a teaser, and we think that’s the best way to use the Broncos this week – as a leg in a 6-point teaser, bringing the Broncos down from -7 to -1 and going through the key numbers 3, 4, 6, and 7.

The total of 40.5 also warrants consideration for the under. With Denver’s defense ranking among the league’s best and their games consistently staying low-scoring (that Jets game totaled just 24 points), this could easily turn into a grind-it-out affair. Each of the Giants’ last seven Week 7 games as underdogs have gone under the total.

The Bottom Line

Denver should win at home with their superior defense and the advantage of facing a rookie quarterback making his first trip to Mile High. However, asking them to cover a full touchdown against a Giants team playing with renewed confidence and coming off extra rest feels like a stretch.

The smart money looks at the Giants +7 or using Denver in a teaser to reduce the number. With both defenses likely to play significant roles and the Broncos’ tendency for close games, taking the points with New York makes sense.

Best Bets:

• Giants +7 – Take the touchdown with the road team
• Broncos -1 (6-point teaser leg) – Tease through the key numbers
• Under 40.5 – Defense and altitude should limit scoring