Bengals Poised to Cover Against Visiting Jaguars in Week 2 AFC Showdown
Game Details:
- Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- TV: CBS
- MyBookie Line: Bengals -3.5 (Total: 48.5)
Why We’re Backing Cincinnati at -3 (-125)
After analyzing the Week 1 performances and key matchup factors, the value clearly lies with laying the points and backing Joe Burrow and the Bengals to cover at home against Jacksonville.
Offensive Efficiency Favors Cincinnati
While the Jaguars put up impressive rushing numbers in their 26-10 win over Carolina, the underlying metrics tell a concerning story about their offensive capabilities. Jacksonville managed just two touchdowns despite protecting Trevor Lawrence well and running for 200 yards, with drives of 13 plays for 55 yards and 15 plays for 49 yards both stalling out for field goals.
The red zone struggles are particularly troubling when facing a Cincinnati defense that showed significant improvement from last season’s poor unit. The Bengals held the Browns to just 16 points, surrendering only two touchdowns and three scoring drives in total while forcing two turnovers.
Home Field Advantage and Quarterback Edge
The Bengals are 6-1 with the OVER in their last seven home games, indicating their offense performs particularly well at Paycor Stadium. Despite a modest Week 1 showing against Cleveland’s tough defense, Burrow’s talent level significantly exceeds what Jacksonville faced in Carolina’s Bryce Young.
Burrow is miles ahead of Bryce Young, and the Bengals’ receiving weapons present matchup nightmares that the Panthers simply couldn’t provide. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be a matchup nightmare for a Jacksonville secondary that allowed Carolina receivers to get open consistently.
Jaguars’ Road Struggles Continue
The trends heavily favor Cincinnati in this spot. The Jaguars are 1-11 straight up in their last 12 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC North opponents. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
Penalty Concerns and Execution Issues
Jacksonville got away with committing 11 penalties, a concerning trend that carried over from the preseason. Against Cincinnati’s pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson, who had three hits and a sack by himself against the Browns, these penalty issues could become magnified.
The Jaguars’ offensive line won’t be able to provide the same level of protection they gave Lawrence against Carolina’s anemic pass rush. If the offense can’t put together clean scoring drives that result in touchdowns, the Bengals will easily cover.
Coaching and Continuity Factors
While first-year head coach Liam Coen picked up his first NFL win, this is now Trevor Lawrence’s 3rd head coach in his short NFL career, creating potential chemistry and system issues on the road. Meanwhile, Zac Taylor enters his 7th season with the Bengals, providing stability and familiarity with his system.
Historical Context Supports Cincinnati
The Bengals lead the series 3-0 in the last three meetings, including impressive performances that showcase their ability to handle Jacksonville’s offensive attack. The Bengals’ 23 passing touchdowns in Goal to Go situations were the most in the NFL for the 2024 regular season, highlighting their red zone efficiency that should contrast favorably with Jacksonville’s Week 1 struggles.
The Bottom Line
The market opened with Cincinnati favored by 2.5 points and has moved to -3.5 at most books. The combination of home field advantage, superior quarterback play, better coaching continuity, and Jacksonville’s documented road struggles makes Cincinnati the logical choice to lay the points.
Our Pick: Bengals -3 (-125) at MyBookie
Confidence Level: High – The Bengals possess significant advantages in quarterback play, coaching stability, and home field advantage that should be enough to cover the short number against a Jacksonville team still finding its identity under new leadership.