Lions at Packers Week 1 Preview: Division Rivalry Renewed
Sunday, September 7, 2025 | 4:25 PM ET | Lambeau Field Spread: Packers -2.5 | Total: 47
The NFC North rivalry takes center stage in Week 1 as the Detroit Lions visit Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in the opener. With both teams harboring Super Bowl hopes, this matchup carries significant weight beyond just a division game.
The Case for Detroit (+2.5)
The Lions enter 2025 as the defending NFC North champions following an impressive 15-2 regular season that fell just short of their ultimate goal. While some question whether Detroit can maintain that level without departed coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, the core talent remains intact.
Offensive Firepower Remains Elite
Despite losing Johnson’s creative play-calling, the Lions still boast one of the NFL’s most potent offensive attacks. The unit ranked first in points per game (33.2) and second in total yards (409.5) last season. Jared Goff returns at quarterback with his elite receiving corps led by two-time All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown, who hauled in 115 catches for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2024.
The backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery provides a devastating one-two punch. Gibbs emerged as a breakout star with 1,412 rushing yards and an NFL-high 16 rushing touchdowns, while Montgomery’s veteran presence adds reliability and power between the tackles.
Hutchinson’s Return Changes Everything
Perhaps most importantly, Detroit gets back their defensive cornerstone in Aidan Hutchinson. The elite pass rusher was on pace for Defensive Player of the Year honors before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 6, having recorded 7.5 sacks in just five games. His presence alone transforms this defense and provides the Lions with a proven weapon against Love’s developing pocket presence.
Historical Dominance in Green Bay
The numbers strongly favor Detroit in this matchup. The Lions have won their last three visits to Lambeau Field and are 6-1 in their last seven meetings overall against Green Bay. They swept the season series in 2024, winning 34-31 at home and 24-14 on the road.
Green Bay’s Counter-Arguments
The Packers made headlines with their blockbuster acquisition of Micah Parsons, but questions remain about his immediate impact. The star defender is dealing with a back injury and missed the entire preseason adjusting to his new system. Even when healthy, integrating a player of his caliber mid-week presents challenges.
Offensive Line Concerns for Detroit
While the Lions’ skill position players remain elite, their offensive line underwent significant changes. The retirement of three-time All-Pro center Frank Ragnow creates a major void in the middle. First-time starters at both guard positions (Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge) could be exploited by Green Bay’s revamped defensive front.
Home Field Advantage
The Packers have won 12 consecutive home openers, and Lambeau Field in September provides a distinct advantage. Green Bay’s familiarity with their system, combined with crowd support, shouldn’t be underestimated in what projects as a close game.
Total Analysis: Over 47 Points
The Over presents excellent value in this matchup for several key reasons:
Defensive Vulnerabilities on Both Sides
Green Bay’s defense, despite ranking fourth in EPA last season, showed concerning signs in underlying metrics. They ranked just 21st in defensive success rate and 28th in defensive dropback success rate. Their impressive takeaway numbers (4th in NFL) are notoriously volatile and unlikely to repeat at the same rate.
The Packers’ secondary remains questionable, particularly with Nate Hobbs unlikely to play due to his knee injury. Facing an explosive Lions passing attack featuring St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Gibbs in space could lead to big plays.
Detroit’s defense, while improved with Hutchinson’s return, still allowed significant yardage last season and will be adjusting to new coordinator Kelvin Sheppard’s system.
Offensive Efficiency
Both teams possess the personnel to move the ball effectively. Jordan Love showed marked improvement in his second season as a starter, and the Packers’ receiving corps, led by rookie Matthew Golden, provides multiple threats. Running back Josh Jacobs gives Green Bay a reliable ground game to complement their passing attack.
Weather and Pace Factors
With sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid-60s, weather won’t be a limiting factor. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have exceeded 50 total points, with only a rain-soaked contest going Under.
The Betting Recommendation
Lions +2.5 (-110): Detroit offers excellent value as short road underdogs. Their track record at Lambeau Field, superior overall talent, and the return of Hutchinson make them live dogs in this spot. The market may be overreacting to coordinator changes while undervaluing the Lions’ proven ability to win in Green Bay.
Over 47 (-110): Both offenses have the weapons to exploit defensive weaknesses, and the total feels light given the recent history between these teams. Expect a high-scoring affair that showcases why both teams have playoff aspirations.
Prediction: Lions 28, Packers 26
The Lions’ experience in big road games and their historical success at Lambeau Field gives them the edge in what should be a thrilling season opener that sets the tone for another competitive NFC North race.