NFC Championship Game Preview and Prediction: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
An NFC East rivalry will be renewed with a trip to Super Bowl LIX on the line as the Washington Commanders travel to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game. Few predicted this matchup before the season began, with the Commanders entering the season with low expectations after a disappointing 2023 campaign. However, led by their remarkable rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have defied the odds and now stand just one game away from the Super Bowl. The Eagles, meanwhile, are aiming to return to the Super Bowl after a heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl LVII.
The Eagles are favored by -6 with a total of 47.5 at betonline sportsbook
Historical Context
Both the Eagles and Commanders have a history of success in the NFC Championship game, albeit with varying degrees of recent relevance. The Eagles, founded in 1933 as a replacement for the bankrupt Frankford Yellow Jackets , have appeared in the playoffs 31 times, won 16 division titles, and appeared in four Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl LII in the 2017 season . They have reached the NFC Championship game eight times, emerging victorious in three of those appearances (1980, 2004, and 2022) . All three of their NFC Championship wins have come at home in Philadelphia .
The Eagles have also experienced both triumph and disappointment in their Super Bowl history. They reached their second Super Bowl in the 2004 season after defeating the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game . However, they fell short against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX, losing 24-21 .
Regular Season Performance
The Eagles have been a model of consistency throughout the 2024 season, finishing with a 14-3 record and claiming the top spot in the NFC East . While their offense may not have been as explosive as in previous years , they still managed to put up 463 points, ranking 7th in the league . Their defense has been the backbone of their success, allowing a league-best 303 points .
In contrast, the Commanders’ path to the NFC Championship game has been one of resilience and resurgence. After a dismal 4-13 record in 2023, they bounced back with a 12-5 record in 2024, marking their first winning season since 2016 and their highest win total since 1991 . Their impressive turnaround included a 7-2 start, their best start since 1996 . Led by Daniels, their offense tied for the second-most total points in a season in franchise history with 485 .
Head-to-Head Matchups
The Eagles and Commanders split their regular season series, with each team winning on the other’s home turf. This suggests a closely contested matchup in the NFC Championship game.
| Week | Location | Result | Key Takeaways |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lincoln Financial Field | Eagles 26-18 | Eagles’ defense stifled the Commanders’ offense, holding them to a season-low 18 points. |
| 16 | Northwest Stadium | Commanders 36-33 | Commanders’ offense exploded for 36 points, with Daniels leading a late comeback. Hurts left the game early with an injury. |
The Commanders enter the NFC Championship game relatively healthy, but they will be without starting guard Sam Cosmi, who is out with an Achilles injury . Linebacker Bobby Wagner is also dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play through the pain . Wagner’s veteran presence and leadership will be crucial for the Commanders’ defense, especially against the Eagles’ potent rushing attack.
For the Eagles, cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is questionable with a shoulder injury. Mitchell’s availability could impact the Eagles’ ability to contain the Commanders’ talented receiving corps. Jalen Hurts, who suffered an injury in the Week 16 matchup against the Commanders, has expressed confidence in his ability to play . However, he acknowledged the challenge of playing through the injury and the importance of finding rhythm in the offense .
Key Factors to Watch:
- Jayden Daniels’ Performance: The rookie quarterback has been the catalyst for the Commanders’ remarkable turnaround. His ability to extend plays and make accurate throws under pressure will be crucial against the Eagles’ formidable defense.
- Eagles’ Running Game: Saquon Barkley has been a dominant force in the playoffs, rushing for over 300 yards in two games . The Eagles will likely rely on Barkley to control the clock and keep the Commanders’ offense off the field.
Our model suggests an Eagles win with a score of 30-21. This prediction considers various factors, including the teams’ regular season performance, head-to-head matchups, and recent trends. While the Eagles have been the more consistent team throughout the season, the Commanders have demonstrated their ability to overcome adversity and win against tough opponents.
The Commanders have a yards per play number of +0.1 while the Eagles weigh in with a yards per play number of +0.8. When you use these numbers to make a line for this game, that number comes out to Eagles -7.5.
Washington has been an exciting team to watch this year but the Eagles have been the better team from start to finish. All of the various ways we have to make a line on an NFL game point towards an Eagles win by 7+.