NFL Week 1 Betting Preview: Steelers at Jets – A Tale of Swapped Quarterbacks
Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Spread: Steelers -2.5 to -3 betonline
Total: 37.5 to 39 points
Week 1 couldn’t have scripted a more compelling narrative. Aaron Rodgers returns to MetLife Stadium, but this time wearing the black and gold of Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Justin Fields gets his fresh start with the Jets after his stint with the Steelers ended in disappointment. This quarterback swap creates one of the most interesting storylines of the opening weekend.
The Quarterback Carousel
Rodgers’ move to Pittsburgh represents perhaps the most significant quarterback acquisition for a Mike Tomlin team in recent memory. After finishing with 28 touchdown passes to just 11 interceptions last season with the Jets, Rodgers showed he still had something in the tank. The question isn’t whether Rodgers can still play at 41 years old, but rather whether he has enough left to elevate a Steelers team built on defensive foundations.
Fields acknowledged the storyline aspects, saying “The storyline is crazy. I mean, that’s why the NFL set us up for Week 1,” but insisted “There’s no storyline for me. It’s ball for me”. This professional approach from Fields suggests he’s focused on execution rather than revenge narratives.
Defensive Advantages Point to the Under
The case for betting the under becomes compelling when examining both defensive units. The Steelers were 10-8 to the under last season, while the Jets went 10-6-1 over in 2024. However, new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn is installing a defense-first philosophy that should significantly impact offensive output.
Week 1 totals of 38.5 points or shorter have stayed under at a 59% clip since 2000, including a 0-4 Over/Under count since 2019. This historical trend supports the under, especially considering both teams are operating with new offensive systems.
The Steelers defense remains elite, and this pass rush will have Fields on the move most dropbacks. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will be improved under new head coach Aaron Glenn, with plenty of pieces to be a Top 10 stop unit again.
Steelers Slight Edge on the Spread
While the spread has moved from 3 to 2.5 plus juice at most books, the Steelers maintain several advantages. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers teams have never finished under .500, providing institutional stability that the Jets, under first-year head coach Glenn, cannot match.
Rodgers will play smart, Tomlin’s defense will force at least one crucial turnover, and Pittsburgh’s tight end-heavy game plan will wear down New York’s defense. The Steelers plan to lean heavily on their tight end depth, featuring Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, Connor Heyward, and Darnell Washington in multi-tight end packages.
Key Betting Factors
Steelers Advantages:
- Coaching experience edge with Mike Tomlin
- Superior defensive unit
- Rodgers’ veteran presence and game management
- Heavy tight end packages creating mismatches
Jets Advantages:
- Home field advantage
- Familiarity with Rodgers from two seasons
- Fields’ mobility and athleticism
- Improved weapons in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall
The Smart Play
Initial simulations favor the Steelers with a 57% win probability and a predicted final score of Steelers 20-18. However, spread projections favor the Jets (+2.5) at 58%, suggesting the line may be slightly inflated in Pittsburgh’s favor.
The totals projection appears more definitive, with the over at 54% and under at 46% on a 37.5-point total, though this is closer than the historical Week 1 under trends suggest.
Final Recommendation
Best Bet: Under 38.5/39 (-110)
Both defensive units are trusted much more than these quarterbacks, and Week 1 historically favors conservative game plans. The combination of new offensive systems, strong defenses, and historically low Week 1 scoring makes the under the most compelling wager.
Secondary Play: Jets +2.5/+3 (-115)
While Pittsburgh could win outright, three points seem generous for a road favorite with a 41-year-old quarterback facing a defense that studied him for two seasons. A last-second field goal seems about right in an ugly, low-scoring game.