Packers at Browns Week 3 Preview: Can Cleveland’s Elite Defense Stop Green Bay’s Perfect Start?

Game Details: Saturday, September 21, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland Spread: Packers -7.5 | Total: 41.5 | Moneyline: Packers -450, Browns +350

The Setup

Two teams heading in opposite directions collide in Cleveland this weekend as the undefeated Green Bay Packers travel to face the winless Browns. Green Bay enters as 7.5-point road favorites after dismantling Detroit and Washington to open the season, while Cleveland searches for its first victory after falling to Cincinnati and Baltimore.

Packers Looking to Continue Perfect Start

Green Bay has established itself as one of the NFL’s most complete teams through two weeks, averaging 27 points per game while surrendering just 15.5 points. Jordan Love has been exceptional, completing 66% of his passes for 480 yards and four touchdowns without throwing an interception. The quarterback’s efficiency has been complemented by a balanced ground attack led by Josh Jacobs, who has already found the end zone twice while rushing for 150 yards.

The Packers’ defensive transformation has been equally impressive, particularly with the addition of Micah Parsons providing an immediate impact. Green Bay ranks fourth in scoring defense and has shown the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks while maintaining solid coverage downfield. Their recent throttling of Washington’s passing attack demonstrated the unit’s potential against struggling offensive lines.

However, Green Bay faces some concerning injury questions along the offensive line, with starting right tackle Zach Tom potentially sidelined. This could prove problematic against Cleveland’s ferocious pass rush.

Browns’ Defensive Excellence Masks Offensive Struggles

Despite their 0-2 record, Cleveland boasts the NFL’s top-ranked defense, allowing just 191.5 total yards per game. The Browns have been particularly stout against the run and have generated consistent pressure with Myles Garrett leading the charge with 3.5 sacks through two games. Their defensive front seven has the capability to disrupt even the most efficient offensive attacks.

The Browns’ defensive performance against Cincinnati was particularly noteworthy, as they effectively neutralized Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ high-powered offense. Even in their loss to Baltimore, Cleveland limited the Ravens to just 241 total yards, with Derrick Henry managing only 23 rushing yards.

Offensively, Cleveland has struggled mightily, averaging just 16.5 points per game while relying heavily on veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. The Browns rank 27th in scoring and have shown minimal ability to establish a consistent ground game, averaging only 82 rushing yards per contest. Their offensive line has been a particular weakness, creating concerns about protection for Flacco against Green Bay’s improving pass rush.

Key Betting Trends and Historical Context

The betting trends paint an intriguing picture for this matchup:

Favoring Cleveland (+7.5):

• Underdogs have won each of the Packers’ last five Week 3 games
• Green Bay has lost their last three Week 3 games as road favorites
• The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents
• Cleveland is 3-4 ATS as home underdogs since last season

Supporting Green Bay (-7.5):

• The Browns have lost eight consecutive games dating back to last season
• Green Bay has covered the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites
• The Packers have won all eight September games against AFC opponents
• Cleveland has failed to cover in seven of their last eight games

Total Analysis: Defense-First Affair Expected

The 41.5-point total reflects expectations of a defensive struggle, and the metrics support this projection. Green Bay’s secondary has been exceptional, ranking second in coverage while recently limiting Washington to minimal offensive production. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s pass defense has been equally impressive, though their offense has been unable to capitalize.

Historical trends suggest the under could be the play, with Cleveland’s last six games against NFC North opponents going under the total. Additionally, the Browns’ home venue has seen four consecutive Sunday games stay under the posted number.

The Handicap

While Green Bay appears to be the superior team on paper, several factors suggest this spread may be inflated. Cleveland’s defensive capabilities are legitimate and could create problems for a Packers offensive line dealing with injury concerns. The Browns’ ability to pressure the quarterback and stop the run gives them a pathway to keeping this game competitive.

However, Cleveland’s offensive limitations are severe, and their inability to sustain drives could eventually wear down their defense. Green Bay’s balanced attack and superior quarterback play should eventually prove decisive in what figures to be a lower-scoring affair.

The betting market seems to be overvaluing Green Bay’s perfect record while underestimating Cleveland’s defensive capabilities. This setup, combined with the historical trends favoring Week 3 underdogs against the Packers, suggests value exists with the home team.

The Picks

Spread: Browns +7.5 (-110) Cleveland’s elite defense should keep them within the number against a Green Bay team dealing with offensive line concerns. The historical trends and home field advantage provide additional value.

Total: Under 41.5 (-110)
Two strong defenses and Cleveland’s offensive struggles point toward a lower-scoring game. The under has been profitable in similar matchup scenarios this season.

Best Bet: Browns +7.5 – The defense travels, and Cleveland’s unit is among the league’s best. Green Bay may win, but covering a touchdown-plus spread on the road against a desperate home team could prove challenging.