Eagles at Chargers: Big Time Non-Conference Monday Night Matchup in La La Land
The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles look to end their two-game losing streak on the road against a Chargers team that has won four of their last five games.
Even losing two in a row, the Eagles are the road favorites (-2.5), with a total of 41.5, mainly because of the uncertainty about the status of Justin Herbert.
Philly (8-4) is still in control of the NFC East and got some help with the Cowboys (6-6-1) losing on Thursday night. However, there are cracks in the armor and significant issues for the defending champs. The offense is only averaging 15.5 ppg over the last four games, and Jalen Hurts has taken some heat. Saquon Barkley has looked nothing like the Offensive Player of the Year he was last season, is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, and in the last four games has averaged 55.3 rushing yards per game at 3.1 yards per carry.
The Bolts (8-4) need to keep winning to keep pace with the Broncos (10-2) in the AFC West. They beat them earlier in the season at home and face them on the road in the season finale. Justin Herbert has had a pretty good season, but recently had surgery on his non-throwing hand and is listed as questionable.
The win over the Broncos was the Chargers’ only this season, against a team currently over .500.
Looking at the Stats
The Eagles rank a legit tied for ninth in scoring defense (20.8 ppg), but only rank 19th in scoring (22.5 ppg), 23rd in passing yards per game, and 22nd in rushing yards per game.
The Chargers rank 11th in scoring defense (21 ppg) and 18th in scoring (23.1 ppg). To say their offense is balanced would be like saying Tom Brady was pretty good. Major understatement, as they rank 12th in both passing and rushing yards per game.
The Quarterback Matchup
Jalen Hurts (2,514 yards, 19 TD, 2 INT) has not been bad this season, but has also not been very good. He ranks 19th in QBR, and over the last four games, he has only four TDs. While he only has two picks, one came in the last game, when he also lost a fumble. His offensive line has played well, and he has only been sacked twice in the last four games. Hurts not only faces a good Chargers’ pass rush but also ranks second in the NFL in pass defense.
Will he go, or won’t he? Herbert (2,842 yards, 21 TD, 10 INT) is listed as questionable for the Monday night contest. He has been solid on the season and ranks 12th in QBR, has the eighth most passing yards, and is the Chargers second-leading rusher with 353 yards and a TD. L.A. has given up the seventh most sacks (40), but injuries have decimated the offensive line.
If Herbert cannot go, 2021 #3 pick Trey Lance will get the start. He has not passed for a TD since his rookie season, and in three mop-up appearances this season, he is 7/13 for 90 yards.
Key Trends and Angles
On the season, Philly is 7-5 ATS, they have failed to cover in their last two games, and in their last four games, the total went Under every time. They have covered the spread in both of their road games against teams over .500.
The Chargers are 5-6-1 ATS, have covered in two of their last three games, and have also covered in their last three home games. The total has gone Over in five of their last seven games.
Injury Considerations
The significant injury for the Eagles is Pro Bowl DT Jalen Carter, who will not play and has been dealing with shoulder issues all season. He has not put up the stats he had last season, but he is the anchor of the defense. When he has been on the field, the Eagles are giving up 4.2 yards per rush and have a sack percentage of 6.1% and without him on the field, they are giving up 5.1 yards per rush with a sack percentage of 2.6%, which, for a full season, would rank in the bottom five in the league.
Obviously, the Herbert injury is the big issue for the Chargers. It was mentioned that the O-line injuries are significant, and not only are Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater out for the season, but guards Trey Pipkins III and Jamaree Salyer are listed as questionable.
The Prediction
Hard to make a pick for the spread with Herbert’s status uncertain, so will stay away from that one. However, the pick is the Under in this game, even with Carter not playing. The Eagles have had issues on offense for a while, and that will continue facing a Chargers’ defense that is giving up the third-fewest yards per game. The Bolts will play good D as will the Eagles, so don’t look for a barnburner in a non-conference game where the Under is the play.
Looking Ahead
In their last four games, the Eagles have only one tough one in a road game against the Bills. In their other three games, they face the reeling Raiders and the Commanders twice.
The Chargers have a much more demanding remaining schedule, facing the Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos, with three of those games on the road.