Rams vs Jaguars: A Tale of Two Halves in London
Sunday, October 19, 2025 | Wembley Stadium, London
Line: Jaguars +3 | Total: 44.5 | MyBookie
The Stakes Are Real
The NFL’s unique magic lies in the weight of every single game, and Week 7 is no exception. Both teams sit at 4-2, with the Rams locked in a three-way tie atop the NFC West alongside the Seahawks and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars need to bounce back from a disappointing 20-12 home loss to Seattle after stringing together impressive wins against the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs. With the Colts leading the AFC South and the 2-3 Texans lurking, Jacksonville can’t afford to drop this one.
The London Travel Chess Match
This international matchup presents a fascinating study in travel strategies. The Jaguars touched down in London on Tuesday, settling in at The Grove hotel north of the city for early acclimatization. Head coach Liam Coen, who previously worked under Sean McVay as the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2022, deliberately chose the early arrival approach, partly due to Jacksonville’s upcoming bye week.
The Rams, conversely, won’t arrive until Saturday morning – later than their previous London trips in 2017 and 2019. McVay’s squad is banking on sports science that suggests maintaining home routines longer minimizes jet lag impact. With both coaches familiar with each other’s philosophies, this travel timing decision could prove pivotal in a game between evenly matched teams.
Key Matchup Dynamics
Our model projects the Rams as 3-point favorites, aligning with the current spread. Los Angeles boasts the NFL’s best yards per play differential at +1.5, while Jacksonville sits at -0.5. However, the Jaguars counter with the league’s second-best defensive yards per point allowed at 17.4, showcasing their bend-but-don’t-break approach.
The potential absence of Puka Nacua looms large for Los Angeles. The Pro Bowl receiver, who leads the NFL with 54 receptions heading into Week 7, has been dealing with an ankle injury and missed Wednesday’s practice. Without him, Matthew Stafford will lean heavily on Davante Adams and the ground game led by Kyren Williams, who has found the end zone in seven of his eight previous October appearances.
Jacksonville’s defense has shown vulnerability through the air, ranking 30th in pass defense. However, they lead the league in turnover differential at +8, with six different players recording interceptions this season – the most of any team. If Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can generate pressure against a Rams offensive line, it could disrupt Stafford’s timing. The veteran quarterback has already been held under 200 passing yards twice this season.
Trends That Matter
The historical data reveals interesting patterns for both squads:
Jacksonville’s Advantages:
- Won 3 of their last 4 Week 7 games as underdogs
- Covered in 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs at neutral venues
- Won the first half in 5 of their last 6 October games at Wembley
Los Angeles’ Edge:
- Won 7 straight games against AFC opponents
- 11-4 ATS in last 15 games when favored by 3 or fewer points
- Covered in all 7 recent games against AFC opponents
The total has consistently stayed under in relevant situations, with 7 of Jacksonville’s last 8 games following a loss going under, and all 5 of the Rams’ recent neutral site games finishing below the total.
The Betting Angle
Breaking down this matchup by halves reveals an interesting opportunity. Our projections show Jacksonville winning the first half by 3 points while the Rams dominate the second half by 6, resulting in the 3-point game spread. The jet lag factor could significantly impact the Rams’ first-half performance, as their bodies adjust to the time difference after their late arrival.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense struggled mightily with pass protection last week, surrendering 33 pressures and 7 sacks. Facing a Rams defense featuring Braden Fiske, Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young won’t make things easier. However, if Jacksonville’s offensive line can provide Lawrence time and establish Travis Etienne Jr. in the ground game (averaging 124 yards per contest), they could control the early tempo.
The Picks
First Half: Jaguars +1.5 – The combination of travel advantage, Jacksonville’s strong first-half performance at Wembley, and potential early jet lag effects on the Rams makes this an attractive play.
First Half Total: Under 22.5 – Both teams may start conservatively as they feel each other out, with the Rams potentially sluggish from travel.
Halftime Strategy: If the Rams are available at -3 or better for the second half, that presents value as they typically make strong adjustments and should be fully acclimated by then, barring significant injuries.
The beauty of this London matchup lies not just in the game line but in understanding how the unique circumstances create opportunities in the derivative markets. With both teams talented enough to make a playoff push, expect a hard-fought battle where the timing of momentum shifts could determine both the outcome and the best betting value.