Steelers at Bengals Thursday Night Football: Division Race Tightens
The AFC North takes center stage tonight as the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (2-4) in a crucial divisional matchup at Paycor Stadium. With the Steelers favored by 5.5 points and a total set at 45 at MyBookie, this game carries significant implications for the division standings.
Division Race Stakes
A win tonight would put Cincinnati at 3-4 while dropping Pittsburgh to 4-2, dramatically shifting the AFC North landscape. Looking ahead, the Steelers face a brutal stretch with the Packers, Colts, and Chargers – games where they could realistically go 0-3. Meanwhile, the Bengals get the Jets and Bears before these teams meet again on November 16th.
With the right results, both teams could be sitting at 5-4 when they face off next month. For Cincinnati, tonight represents their best chance to stay afloat in the division race until Joe Burrow returns in December.
The Case for Cincinnati +5.5
Our model projects this as a 3-to-5 point Steelers win, making the Bengals an attractive play getting 5.5 points. If you can find a +6 on the board before kickoff, that’s even better value.
Joe Flacco showed promise in his Cincinnati debut last week against Green Bay. Despite the loss, the offense gained momentum as the game progressed, putting up 18 second-half points against one of the league’s top defenses. The veteran connected with Ja’Marr Chase on 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown, demonstrating quick chemistry with Cincinnati’s elite receiving corps.
The Bengals defense remains vulnerable, ranking 29th in yards per play allowed and 30th in red zone defense. However, this could actually work in Cincinnati’s favor for covering the spread – they’ve been in shootouts all season, with games reaching 58 and 61 combined points. The Over has hit in eight of their last nine home games.
Pittsburgh’s Thursday Night Struggles
While the Steelers appear to be the stronger team on paper, history suggests caution. Mike Tomlin is just 2-9 in Thursday night road games and an alarming 0-6 in divisional Thursday road games. The Steelers haven’t won a Thursday night road game since 2016 against Indianapolis.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid but hasn’t faced many high-powered passing attacks this season. They struggled when Carson Wentz threw for 350 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4, showing vulnerability against teams with elite weapons. With Chase and Tee Higgins at Flacco’s disposal, the Steelers secondary could be tested.
Offensive Concerns on Both Sides
The Steelers’ ground game has improved recently, rushing for over 100 yards in back-to-back games. They’ll face a Cincinnati run defense that’s been consistently gashed this season. However, Pittsburgh’s passing game with Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent, and the short week doesn’t help with preparation.
Cincinnati ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd in rushing yards per game (56.7), making them one-dimensional. But with Flacco’s experience and willingness to let it fly – he attempted 45 passes in his debut – they can move the ball through the air against a Pittsburgh defense that allows 355.6 yards per game.
Under 45 Points
Despite Cincinnati’s tendency toward high-scoring games, the total of 45 feels inflated for this matchup. Thursday night divisional games often play tighter than expected, and both teams are dealing with short preparation time. Eight of the Steelers’ last nine October road games as favorites have gone Under the total.
Flacco’s limited time in the offense and Pittsburgh’s methodical approach on offense could keep this game lower scoring than the market expects. Four of the last five games between AFC North teams have stayed Under the total.
The Bottom Line
The Steelers are good, not great – certainly beatable in the right circumstances. Tonight presents those circumstances: a short week, on the road, in a division game where Tomlin has historically struggled. Flacco has experience succeeding with limited preparation from his time in Cleveland last season, and Cincinnati’s weapons give him every chance to keep this game close.
The Play: Take Cincinnati +5.5 (or better at +6 if available) and Under 45 total points. Monitor the line movement today as any drift toward +6 provides additional value. This divisional battle should be decided by a field goal or less, making the Bengals the smart side tonight.