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When: Saturday, January 11, 2025, at 8:00 PM EST
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total: 43.5 (betonline)
As the NFL playoffs kick off this weekend, one of the more anticipated matchups is the AFC North rivalry renewed in the Wild Card round with the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to face the Baltimore Ravens. This game, set under the Saturday night lights, comes with a clear favorite in the Ravens, who are favored by 9.5 points, a spread that reflects their dominance this season.
Our predictive model suggests this game might be the most one-sided of all the Wild Card games this week, forecasting a decisive Ravens win with a score of 31-14. This prediction is bolstered by Baltimore’s performance throughout the season, particularly their league-leading yards per play differential of +1.6, showcasing their efficiency on both sides of the ball. In contrast, the Steelers ended the regular season on a sour note, losing four games in a row, which included critical games that could have clinched them a better playoff position. Their yards per play differential stands at -0.4, ranking them last among playoff teams, highlighting struggles in both offense and defense when it mattered most.
The Ravens have been a formidable force at home, and their recent form has been nothing short of spectacular. With Lamar Jackson leading the charge, Baltimore has not just secured the division but has shown they can control games with their balanced attack and robust defense. On the other side, the Steelers have been marred by inconsistency, particularly in pivotal moments, raising doubts about their ability to challenge the Ravens in their own stadium.
Historically, the Steelers have had their moments against the Ravens, but with the current form of both teams, it’s hard to see Pittsburgh reversing their fortunes. The Steelers’ defense, which was once their hallmark, has shown signs of vulnerability, especially against a Ravens offense that’s clicking on all cylinders.
Given these dynamics, the Ravens are not only expected to win but to cover the -9.5 spread. The matchup looks to be one where Baltimore’s superior playmaking, both offensively and defensively, should shine through. The total of 43.5 might seem high, but considering the Ravens’ scoring ability and the Steelers’ recent offensive struggles, it’s possible the Ravens will push this game past that number on their own.
In conclusion, while the Steelers-Ravens rivalry always promises intensity, this Wild Card game feels like a mismatch on paper. Unless Pittsburgh can rediscover their early season magic, this game might just confirm what our predictive model suggests – a dominant performance by the Ravens, potentially making a statement in their quest for a Super Bowl run. We’re backing the Ravens at -9.5.
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