Vikings at Bears: Monday Night Football Week 1 Preview
Bottom Line: Take the Bears +1.5 and the Over 44.5 for Monday Night Football. Chicago’s home field advantage and improved offensive line should help them cover against a Vikings team starting an unproven rookie quarterback making his NFL debut.
Game Details
- Date: Monday, September 8, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
- TV: ABC/ESPN
- Spread: Vikings -1.5 Betonline
- Total: 44.5 MyBookie
Tale of Two Quarterbacks
This Monday Night Football opener presents a fascinating matchup between two young signal-callers at vastly different stages of their careers. J.J. McCarthy will be in the primetime spotlight in Week 1 for Minnesota, making his long-awaited NFL debut after missing his entire rookie season due to a knee injury. On the other side, Caleb Williams enters his second season looking to build on a rookie campaign that showed flashes of brilliance despite the team’s struggles.
The 28-year-old struggled mightily in both the 2024 season finale against the division-rival Detroit Lions. who finished with the No. 1 seed in the NFC at 15-2, as well as the Vikings’ loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card round, making the front office’s decision to let him walk a bit easier when referring to Sam Darnold’s departure, which paved the way for McCarthy’s opportunity.
The Bears’ quarterback situation offers more stability, as Williams (1 TD) finished the contest with 148 yards on 21-29 through the air while his QB rate was 95.2 in their season finale victory over Green Bay, showing signs of growth late in his rookie year.
The Case for Chicago +1.5
Several compelling factors support backing the Bears as home underdogs in this spot:
Home Field Advantage: The Bears have won seven of their last eight September games at Soldier Field, demonstrating their comfort level in early-season home contests. Additionally, the Vikings have lost eight of their last 10 road games in September, suggesting they struggle with early-season travel.
Spread Trends Favor the Underdog: Multiple trends support Chicago’s chances to cover. The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road openers against NFC opponents, while the Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five season openers as underdogs.
Defensive Advantage: While Minnesota’s defense was strong last season, Chicago’s improved defensive unit under their new coaching staff should present challenges for the rookie quarterback. Getting out first look at McCarthy is going to be the top storyline on Monday night, and first NFL starts can be particularly challenging in hostile environments.
Coaching Edge: The Bears are hoping improvements to the offensive line and the hiring of Ben Johnson, who was the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator the past three years, as head coach will help with Williams’ development. Johnson’s familiarity with the NFC North and his offensive prowess could provide an immediate advantage.
Over 44.5 Points: The Smart Play
The total presents excellent value for several reasons:
Offensive Potential: McCarthy has a great offensive line in front of him, and even with the WR corps a bit thin, Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson make life easy on the young quarterback. Minnesota’s offensive weapons remain elite despite the quarterback change.
Bears’ Offensive Improvement: And speaking of preseason, Caleb Williams and the Bears’ attack turned heads in the preseason. While it was limited reps, Chicago’s offense looked great and brings plenty of pop to the MNF party. The addition of Ben Johnson’s innovative offensive system should unlock the Bears’ potential.
Defensive Concerns: The Bears’ stop unit was respectable in 2024 thanks to a strong pass rush that disrupted QBs and led to 24 takeaways. After some lifeless preseason showings, Chicago might not have the same bite in 2025, and that leaves a soft secondary exposed.
Historical Context: Williams had one of his best games against Minnesota last season and will put points on the board against this low total, suggesting familiarity breeds offensive success in this matchup.
Key Matchups to Watch
The battle in the trenches will be crucial, particularly how Chicago’s revamped offensive line handles Minnesota’s pass rush. Minnesota brings a ton of blitz, cooking up pressure and translating that chaos into sacks and takeaways, but the Bears have invested heavily in protection for Williams.
Justin Jefferson remains the most dangerous weapon on the field for either team. Justin Jefferson ranked 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards (1533) last season, and his ability to create separation will test Chicago’s secondary early and often.
The Betting Verdict
The market has created value on both the spread and total in this contest. While Minnesota’s talent edge is real, the combination of McCarthy’s inexperience, Chicago’s home field advantage, and the Bears’ coaching upgrade creates a perfect storm for an upset.
Recommended Bets:
- Bears +1.5 (-105): Home underdog in a near pick’em with a rookie quarterback making his debut on the road
- Over 44.5 (-105): Both offenses have the weapons to move the ball, and defensive questions remain for both teams
The Bears’ desperation for a strong start under their new regime, combined with the uncertainty surrounding McCarthy’s debut, creates the perfect recipe for Chicago to cover and both teams to contribute to a higher-scoring affair than the market expects.