Bills at Jaguars Predictions and Odds: NFL Wild Card Playoff, January 11, 2026
Odds: Jaguars +1.5 / Total 52.5 (MyBookie)
One of the more common traps in sports betting is the inability to let go of a team’s past. We saw it repeatedly this season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Sharp bettors identified early that Kansas City wasn’t the same dominant force we’d grown accustomed to seeing. But a significant portion of the betting public kept laying big prices on Chiefs moneylines, only to watch them lose outright. Some bettors simply couldn’t accept that the team wasn’t what it used to be.
We suspect a similar dynamic may be at play with Buffalo in this Wild Card matchup.
The Bills Aren’t the Same Team
Yes, Buffalo finished 12-5 this season. And yes, they’re capable of beating anyone on any given day. But if you’ve watched this team over the past several years and compare those squads to the current version, this has to be considered the weakest team they’ve brought into the playoffs during the Josh Allen era.
The most glaring issue is Buffalo’s run defense, which ranks among the worst in the NFL and is the worst among all 2025-2026 playoff teams. This vulnerability makes them susceptible to any opponent with even a modest ground game.
On offense, despite having Allen under center, the unit has regressed and lacks a consistent big-play threat when they need one most. While the running game has been solid, the passing attack hasn’t lived up to expectations, especially given the financial investments made on that side of the ball.
Perhaps most troubling is Buffalo’s road playoff history. Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 0-4 in postseason games away from home. That’s not a small sample size issue at this point. It represents a legitimate concern about this team’s ability to get it done when playing away from Orchard Park in January.
Jacksonville Is Peaking at the Right Time
The Jaguars enter this game having won eight straight contests. During this stretch, they’ve outscored opponents by a significant margin, proving they can handle pressure situations and deliver when games matter most.
Trevor Lawrence has been the driving force behind this surge. He’s put together a franchise-record season with 38 total touchdowns (29 passing, 9 rushing). Over his last six games, he’s accounted for 19 total touchdowns against just one turnover. This is arguably the best stretch of football in his career.
Jacksonville is a well-balanced team that can win in multiple ways. The defense has been a major factor in their success, particularly against the run where they rank first in the NFL. They’ve also been opportunistic in creating turnovers. Meanwhile, the offense is tied for the most points scored in the AFC.
The Jaguars will also benefit from hosting their first playoff game at EverBank Stadium since the 2023 season, where the home crowd should provide a significant boost.
The Numbers Support Jacksonville
Our model projects a Jaguars win regardless of what data set we use. Using full-season data, we project Jacksonville winning 30-21. When we narrow the focus to the last seven games, the model still favors the Jaguars 26-20. Using only the last four games, it becomes even more one-sided at 26-10.
The efficiency numbers down the stretch tell a similar story. Over the last seven games, Jacksonville’s offense has the best yards per point figure among playoff teams at 10.5, while their defense ranks second at 17.5. Buffalo’s offensive number of 13.3 is respectable, but their defensive mark of 12.9 is concerning and suggests they’re giving up points far too easily.
Bills at Jaguars Prediction
It’s difficult to let go of teams we’ve seen dominate in recent years. But the time may have come to let go of the Bills as a 2026 Super Bowl contender. Buffalo’s run defense liability, road playoff struggles, and overall regression make them vulnerable here.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is playing their best football of the season, has a balanced attack, the league’s top run defense, and a quarterback who’s performing at an elite level. We believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Pick: Jaguars +1.5