Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
NFL Wild Card Playoffs | Monday, January 12, 2026 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
Spread: Texans -3 | Total: 39.5 | Odds via MyBookie
The AFC Wild Card round wraps up Monday night when the Houston Texans travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite being on the road, Houston enters as a 3-point favorite in a matchup featuring two teams heading in very different directions down the stretch.
Season Overview
The Texans finished the regular season at 12-5 after rattling off nine consecutive wins to close out the year. Houston started slowly at 3-5 through eight weeks but completely turned things around in the second half, emerging as one of the hottest teams in football entering the postseason.
Pittsburgh (10-7) claimed the AFC North title but limped across the finish line. The Steelers dropped to 6-6 after Week 13 before winning four of their final five games, including a dramatic two-point win over Baltimore in the regular season finale to clinch the division. A loss to the lowly Browns in the second-to-last week of the season and a missed field goal away from not making the playoffs at all speaks to how inconsistent Pittsburgh has been.
Defensive Dominance vs. Offensive Struggles
This game features the league’s top-ranked defense against a team that has struggled mightily against playoff-caliber competition.
Houston’s defense was historically good this season, allowing just 277.2 yards per game to rank first in the NFL. The Texans also finished second in the league in points allowed at 17.4 per game. They recorded 19 interceptions during the regular season and finished with a plus-17 turnover differential. The pass defense was particularly stingy, surrendering only 183.5 yards per game through the air with a 59.3% completion rate allowed.
Pittsburgh’s defense, while posting solid sack numbers and ranking fourth in turnover differential, has been vulnerable against quality opponents. The Steelers allowed 29.3 points per game in their four consecutive losses to postseason-bound teams during the season. They ranked 17th in points allowed at 22.8 per game and 21st in yards per play surrendered.
Neither offense has been lighting up the scoreboard. The Texans ranked 18th in total yards per game at 327.0 while Pittsburgh checked in at 25th with just 305.6 yards per contest. Houston averaged 23.8 points per game while the Steelers posted 23.4.
Quarterback Matchup
C.J. Stroud leads the Texans into Pittsburgh having thrown for 3,041 yards on the season. He finished strong down the stretch, ranking 10th in EPA plus completion percentage over expected while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt over the final six weeks.
Aaron Rodgers brings a wealth of postseason experience to the table for Pittsburgh and put together a solid 294-yard performance in the regular season finale against Baltimore. However, his overall numbers have been pedestrian, ranking 19th in efficiency metrics over that same late-season stretch while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.
Key Trends
The Texans are 9-8 against the spread this season, while the under has cashed in 11 of their 17 games. On the road, Houston is 4-4 ATS this year.
Pittsburgh is 9-7-1 ATS overall and 5-3 against the number at home. However, the Steelers carry a troubling six-game postseason losing streak into this matchup and have failed to cover in each of those playoff defeats.
The total sits at just 39.5, the lowest number on the Wild Card slate, yet this still may not be low enough given Houston’s dominant defense and Pittsburgh’s offensive limitations.
The Pick: Texans -3
Houston was clearly the better and more consistent team down the stretch this season. While the Steelers have home field and a veteran quarterback with playoff experience, they have not beaten a playoff-bound opponent since Week 3.
The Texans’ suffocating defense should create major problems for Pittsburgh’s offense. Houston allowed just 183.5 passing yards per game this season, and their ability to generate turnovers could prove decisive against a Steelers team that cannot afford negative plays.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been better recently, allowing just 19 points per game over their last four contests, which should keep this game relatively close. However, expect Houston’s defensive front to control the trenches and make enough plays to pull away late.
This projects as a low-scoring grind that Houston should control. The Texans’ nine-game winning streak and elite defensive play make them the right side here. Look for Houston to advance to the Divisional Round with a hard-fought road win.
Our Pick: Texans -3
This is a smaller play for us and not one of our top selections for Wild Card Weekend.