NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Game Date: Saturday, January 11, 2026
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | Foxborough, MA
TV: NBC (Sunday Night Football)
Line: Patriots -3.5 | Total: 46 (MyBookie)
The New England Patriots return to the postseason for the first time since 2021, and just the second time since Tom Brady’s departure following the 2019 campaign. The last time the Patriots won a playoff game was during their Super Bowl LIII championship run after the 2018 season. Now, with a young franchise quarterback under center in Drake Maye, the Patriots have once again become a force in the AFC, earning the No. 2 seed with an impressive 14-3 regular season record.
Standing in their way are the Los Angeles Chargers, who enter as the seventh seed after finishing 11-6. Led by head coach Jim Harbaugh and star signal-caller Justin Herbert, the Chargers overcame significant adversity this season to reach the postseason, including the loss of both Pro Bowl offensive tackles for the season.
Statistical Breakdown
The Patriots put together one of the NFL’s most productive offenses this season, finishing second in scoring at 28.8 points per game and fourth in total yards at 379.4 per contest. Maye emerged as an MVP candidate, showcasing the type of arm talent and playmaking ability that had the entire league taking notice.
The Chargers, meanwhile, rode their defense to the playoffs. Los Angeles ranked ninth in scoring defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, and fifth in passing yards allowed at 179.9 per game. However, stopping the run proved problematic for Harbaugh’s squad, ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed.
On the flip side, New England’s defense was equally stout, allowing just 18.8 points per game (fourth in the NFL) and ranking sixth against the run at 101.7 yards per contest. The Patriots will need their front seven healthy and at full strength, as the unit has struggled since mid-November.
Where the Chargers faced significant challenges was in pass protection. Los Angeles ranked dead last in pass-blocking win rate and 31st in run-blocking win rate. Herbert absorbed 54 sacks this season, one shy of the league lead, yet still managed to put together an outstanding campaign. His 24,820 career passing yards through six seasons ranks second all-time behind only Peyton Manning for that span.
Our Model’s Take
Our predictive models align closely with the current betting line. Using full-season data, our model projects a Patriots 22-20 win. When weighted toward more recent performance using only the last seven games, the projection moves to Patriots 22-18.
One metric that stands out in New England’s favor is yards per play differential. The Patriots posted a +1.0 mark, tied for second-best in the league with the Rams and trailing only the Seahawks (+1.3). The Chargers sit at +0.2, ranking 14th in the NFL and second-worst among all playoff teams ahead of only the Steelers (-0.2).
When converting that yards per play differential into a betting line projection, the Patriots grade out as approximately 8-point favorites. The current market line of -3.5 sits well below that number.
Matchup Keys
The quarterback showdown between Maye and Herbert features two of the game’s brightest young arms. Both possess elite arm talent, dual-threat ability, and the capacity to extend plays outside the pocket. The difference in this game could come down to supporting casts and scheme.
The Chargers defense, coordinated by rising star Jesse Minter who followed Harbaugh from Michigan’s national championship staff, relies heavily on zone coverage concepts. According to tracking data, Los Angeles plays zone at an 80.9% rate, fourth-highest in the league. This could work in New England’s favor, as Maye has been exceptional against zone coverage this season, particularly against the quarters and cover-three schemes that make up the majority of Minter’s playbook.
For Los Angeles to pull the upset, Herbert will need to overcome a battered offensive line that has struggled to give him time. The Patriots front must take advantage of that vulnerability and generate consistent pressure. When Herbert operates from clean pockets, he remains one of the league’s most dangerous passers.
Why We Like New England
We don’t see the Patriots losing this game at home. They were among the best teams in the NFL throughout the season, posting a dominant 14-3 record while establishing an identity on both sides of the ball. Maye gives them the type of franchise quarterback capable of winning shootouts, while their defense provides a solid floor.
The Chargers will be a tough out with Herbert, a head coach with playoff pedigree, and a top-10 scoring defense. But the offensive line issues present too great a hurdle to overcome against a quality opponent in a hostile road environment.
To add some protection, we’re buying the half-point here to move the line from -3.5 down to -3. Laying the extra juice is worth it in a game that could come down to a field goal.
The Play
Patriots -3 (-130)
No play on the total.