Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Predictions and Picks – NFL Wild Card Playoff
Game Time: Saturday, January 10th, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV: Prime Video
Odds: Pick ‘Em | Total: 46 (MyBookie)
The NFL’s Oldest Rivalry Gets a Playoff Rubber Match
The NFC North rivals will meet for the third time this season when the Green Bay Packers travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in the Saturday night Wild Card matchup. This is only the third time these storied franchises have met in the postseason, adding even more weight to an already meaningful divisional showdown.
The season series is split at one game apiece, with each team taking care of business on their home field in tightly contested battles. Green Bay won the first meeting 28-21 on December 7th, but Chicago returned the favor on December 20th with a 22-16 overtime win. That sets the stage perfectly for a winner-take-all meeting with a trip to the Divisional Round on the line.
Momentum Matters in the Postseason
No team wants to limp into the playoffs, and unfortunately for Green Bay, that’s exactly what happened. After their Week 14 win over the Bears, the Packers proceeded to drop all four of their remaining regular season games. The skid included an overtime loss in Chicago, a 41-24 home defeat to Baltimore, and a 16-3 drubbing in Minnesota to close the year.
Meanwhile, Chicago has been the better team down the stretch and frankly, for most of the season. The Bears finished 11-6 compared to Green Bay’s 9-7-1 record. While Chicago did drop their final two games to fall short of securing the No. 2 seed outright, they still earned that spot when Philadelphia mailed in their finale. Ben Johnson’s squad has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity all season long, and we expect that trend to continue Saturday night.
A Tale of Two Trajectories: The Numbers Tell the Story
We like to look at yards per point numbers as a quick snapshot of offensive and defensive efficiency. Over the full season, these two teams graded out remarkably similar. Chicago posted a 14.2 yards per point on offense and 14.8 on defense. Green Bay’s numbers were 14.5 and 14.7 respectively. Those figures are solidly average and certainly not Super Bowl caliber for either club.
However, the recent form tells a much different story. Over the last seven games, the Packers posted 13.5 yards per point on offense and 14.0 on defense. The Bears? They came in at 13.8 on offense but 16.5 on defense. While both teams have been relatively similar offensively down the stretch, Chicago has been creating more problems for opposing offenses when it matters most.
Our Model Confirms the Trend
When we run our proprietary model using full-season statistics, the predicted final score comes back Bears 25, Packers 23. A close game, which matches the pick ’em line that oddsmakers have set.
But here’s where it gets interesting. When we input only data from the last seven games, the projection shifts significantly to Bears 28, Packers 19. Take it a step further and use just the last four games, and the model spits out Bears 34, Packers 13.
The data paints a clear picture: Chicago is playing better football right now, and Green Bay is trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.
Betting Trends Worth Noting
The numbers back up our position on the Bears. Chicago is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams. The Packers, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and a brutal 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road contests.
While Green Bay holds a commanding 11-3 ATS advantage in the last 14 matchups against Chicago and the Bears are just 2-14 straight up in their last 16 home games against the Pack, this year feels different. The Bears are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games, showing they’ve been able to cover consistently throughout the season.
Key Matchup to Watch
Caleb Williams has taken a massive leap in his development this season, throwing for 27 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. In Chicago’s overtime win last month, Williams threw for 250 yards and two scores, though he benefited from Jordan Love leaving that game with a concussion in the second quarter.
Love is expected to return for this playoff matchup, which gives Green Bay a better chance than they had in the rematch. But Chicago’s defense leads the league in takeaways this season and has a knack for making plays when it counts. Green Bay’s offense has shown a tendency to stall and give away possessions, which plays right into Chicago’s hands.
The Bears defense can be vulnerable to explosive plays, allowing the second-most receptions of 20-plus yards in the league. But if they can limit Green Bay’s opportunities through turnovers and keep the Packers offense off schedule, Chicago should control this game.
The Pick: Bears PK
With the line sitting at pick ’em, we’re simply being asked to identify a winner. Given everything we’ve outlined, that’s an easy call. The Bears are the better team on paper, they’re playing significantly better football right now, they have home field advantage, and momentum is squarely on their side.
Green Bay limped to the finish line while Chicago has been battle-tested in close games all year long. Johnson’s group knows how to win tight contests, going 11-6 while playing meaningful football down the stretch.
This is a no-brainer for us. Take the home team Bears PK over the Packers to advance to the Divisional Round.
The Pick: Bears PK