Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears – NFC Divisional Playoff Prediction
Sunday, January 18th, 2026 | 6:30 PM EST | Soldier Field | Line: Rams -4 | Total: 48.5
The final game of the divisional round brings the Los Angeles Rams into Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in what promises to be one of the most watched games of the weekend. This marks the first time the Bears have hosted a playoff game this late in January in 15 years, and the Soldier Field faithful will be treated to some potentially brutal weather conditions with temperatures expected to dip into the single digits and wind gusts exceeding 20 mph.
The Case for the Rams
On paper, the Rams look like the superior team. Los Angeles led the NFL in total offense this season, averaging 395.6 yards per game while also topping the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game. Matthew Stafford led all NFL quarterbacks in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) during the regular season, cementing his status as an MVP candidate.
Defensively, the Rams rank 16th in total defense at 327.8 yards per game and 10th in points allowed at 20.9. They also finished seventh in sacks with 47 and have a strong rushing defense that ranks 11th in the league. Both teams feature excellent offensive lines in pass protection, with the Rams allowing only 24 sacks (2nd) and the Bears 25 (3rd).
The Rams cruised to a 12-5 record while playing in the toughest division in football and handled business against Carolina in the Wild Card round, though that game was closer than expected.
Why This Game is Tricky
When examining full-season data, the Rams appear to be the clear favorite. The full-season yards per play differential heavily favors Los Angeles, as the Rams’ +0.9 mark ranks among the best in the NFL while the Bears’ -0.3 was tied for the worst among playoff teams. Our model using full-season data projects a 35-23 Rams win.
However, full-season statistics tell one story while current form tells another entirely. The Rams haven’t looked dominant down the stretch. They lost a must-win game to the Falcons and fell behind early in that contest. Plus, they’ve been playing on the road throughout the playoffs, and making a Super Bowl run without home-field advantage is never easy.
Looking at yards per point numbers over the last seven games reveals a different picture. The Rams’ offensive number of 12.9 is solid, but their defensive number of 12.5 is terrible and considerably worse than their full-season mark. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defensive number of 17.2 over the last seven games is significantly better than their season-long average, suggesting Chicago’s defense is playing better football heading into the postseason.
When using data from just the last seven games, our model projects a 37-28 Bears win. Using only the last four games, it’s a 48-27 Bears blowout.
The Bears’ Secret Weapon: The Comeback
Chicago has made a living off late-game heroics this season. The Bears have racked up an incredible seven wins this year when trailing in the final two minutes of games – six during the regular season plus another in the Wild Card round. They lead the league in EPA per play after halftime, suggesting this team simply plays better in the second half when games are on the line.
The Wild Card round was a perfect example. Chicago trailed the Packers 21-3 at halftime and was down 27-16 with six minutes remaining. But as they’ve done all season, the Bears never quit, coming from behind to win yet another dramatic game. The Bears rank sixth in offensive DVOA when trailing in the fourth quarter, and they’ve converted 25 third downs when trailing in the fourth quarter, the most in the league.
Meanwhile, the Rams have shown a tendency to let opponents back into games. They’ve allowed five game-winning drives this season and blew big leads against both the Seahawks and Eagles during the regular season. Los Angeles survived against Carolina last week, but the Panthers hung around all day after what looked like the start of a Rams blowout.
The Turnover Battle Could Be Decisive
The Bears lead the entire NFL with a +22 turnover margin, and they’re 9-0 this season when forcing multiple turnovers. Chicago’s defense lives and dies by creating takeaways – without turnovers, their defensive metrics drop significantly. But when they get the ball back for the offense, they’re nearly unbeatable.
This could spell trouble for the Rams. When Los Angeles loses, it’s typically because of a turnover-heavy performance. They’ve had three turnovers in multiple losses this season and haven’t won a single game where they’ve turned the ball over more than once. Stafford threw just two interceptions through Week 12 but has thrown seven since then, though most analysts attribute this more to luck evening out than any decline in play.
If the Bears can force Stafford into a couple of mistakes, especially in the cold and potentially snowy conditions, Chicago has the resilience to capitalize.
Weather Factor
Matthew Stafford has already announced he’ll be wearing a scuba suit to combat the freezing temperatures, as he’s done in cold-weather games before. While his career cold-weather record has been exaggerated on social media, the conditions add an element of uncertainty to this game. Snow would create bad footing and grip issues, adding variance to everything – and variance tends to favor the underdog.
ATS History Works Against the Rams
Here’s a significant historical trend: over the past 50 years, there have been only 10 games where a road team was favored by four or more points in a playoff game. Those road favorites went 0-10 against the spread. This game qualifies for that list, and history suggests the Rams would need to overcome some disadvantageous numbers.
Our Prediction
The Rams are the more talented team when everyone plays to their potential. But this Bears team simply refuses to lose late in games. They’ve proven all season that leaving the door open even a crack is enough for them to stage a comeback.
When you factor in the cold weather, the Rams’ recent struggles closing out games, Chicago’s league-best performance in the second half, and the significant improvement in the Bears’ defensive metrics over the last seven games, the underdog starts to look very attractive.
The Bears won’t quit. They never do. Look for another dramatic finish at Soldier Field.
Our Pick: Bears +4