Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers Betting Preview – NFC Wild Card
Game Info: Saturday, January 10th, 2026 | 4:30 PM EST | Bank of America Stadium
Current Line: Rams -10 | Total: 46.5 (MyBookie)
The Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers will kick off the 2025-2026 NFL playoffs with their Wild Card matchup Saturday afternoon in Charlotte.
This game should serve as a billboard for everything that’s wrong with the current NFL playoff format. We have the Rams, a team that finished the regular season 12-5 and was one of the top teams in the league, traveling across the country to play an away game against a Carolina squad that finished with a losing record at 8-9. It really is ridiculous.
The Panthers are just the seventh team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record. Their path to the postseason wasn’t exactly inspirational either. After falling to Tampa Bay in their regular-season finale, they needed the Falcons to beat the Saints to trigger a three-way tiebreaker that fell in their favor to claim the NFC South title.
Now to be fair, the Rams didn’t exactly help themselves. They lost three of their final six games, and among those losses were defeats to the Falcons and these same Carolina Panthers back in Week 13.
Yards Per Point Analysis
One of the things we like to do this time of year is take a look at key statistics such as yards per point numbers over the last six or seven games to see how teams rate when compared to full season data.
The Rams’ full season yards per point numbers are 13.0 on offense and 16.1 on defense. That defensive number is good for fourth in the NFL. That offensive number also ranks fourth in the league. However, over the last seven games of the year, the Rams’ numbers were 12.6 on offense and 13.4 on defense. So good offense down the stretch, but the defense suffered.
The Panthers’ full season YPP numbers are 16.3 on offense (30th in the NFL) and 14.6 on defense. Over the last seven games, the Panthers’ numbers were 15.3 on offense and 14.7 on defense.
Clearly the Rams’ defensive number took a significant hit over the last seven games of the season. Their defensive performance declined toward the end of the year primarily because their pass rush became less effective, which in turn exposed a vulnerable secondary and a tendency to give up big plays.
This may very well become a problem as the Rams progress through the playoffs, but not in this game. We say progress through the playoffs because we believe the Rams will win this game and win decisively against a weaker opponent. The Rams were still one of the best teams in the NFL for most of this season. A Rams team that’s focused for 60 minutes should dominate this Panthers team.
The Week 13 Factor
Take a look at the Rams’ recent loss to the Falcons. They obviously took Atlanta lightly and fell behind 21-0 before they knew what hit them. The second half was a different story but unfortunately wasn’t enough. They came back to tie the game at 24, only to lose 27-24. Had they been focused for the full 60 minutes, they likely would have blown out Atlanta.
The Week 13 loss to Carolina was similar. Matthew Stafford had three turnovers in that game, and the Panthers were able to pile up 164 rushing yards while benefiting from those takeaways. That’s not a formula that’s likely to repeat itself in the playoffs. The Rams have significantly improved their ball security since then, and their offensive consistency has continued to improve down the stretch.
By The Numbers
The statistical disparity between these two teams is substantial. The Rams finished with a plus-172 point differential and ranked second in DVOA, while Carolina posted a minus-69 point differential (third-worst by a division champion since 1970) and ranked 25th in DVOA.
Offensively, the Rams led the NFL in points per game at 30.5, while the Panthers finished 27th at 18.3. When it comes to EPA per play, the Rams ranked second in the league while Carolina finished 26th.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams ranked first in PFF run defense grade and seventh in run defense DVOA while allowing the sixth-lowest rushing success rate. They also generated pressure at the seventh-highest rate despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league. That’s a problem for Carolina, which ranks 30th in pass block win rate.
The Quarterback Edge
Matthew Stafford put together an MVP-caliber season, throwing for 4,707 yards with 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He enters this game with 10 career playoff starts under his belt. This will be the first playoff start for Bryce Young, which is considered a significant factor. Young ranked below average in several key metrics this season, including EPA+CPOE composite, completion percentage, and yards per attempt.
Our Prediction
When using full season data, our model predicts a 30-17 Rams win. The Rams are a much better team from top to bottom, and we don’t see them lacking focus here when there’s no tomorrow if they lose. We anticipate a performance similar to their season finale against the Cardinals, which was a 37-20 win.
Historical Trends: Teams favored by 10 or more points in the Wild Card round are 12-1 all-time outright and 10-3 against the spread. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-0 in their last seven games played in January.
The Pick: Rams -10
The Panthers simply don’t have the firepower to hang with the Rams for four quarters. Expecting Carolina to replicate their Week 13 upset against a revenge-minded Rams squad that has been playing elite football is asking too much. Los Angeles should handle business and advance comfortably.