Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks NFC Championship Game Prediction
Game Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
TV: FOX
Odds (MyBookie): Seahawks -2.5, Total 46.5
The NFC Championship features a divisional rivalry rubber match as the Los Angeles Rams travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. These two teams split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a combined three points. Los Angeles edged Seattle 21-19 in Week 11, while the Seahawks pulled off a remarkable comeback to win 38-37 in overtime in Week 16. The margin separating these teams during the regular season was razor thin—the Rams outscored Seattle 58-57 across both contests and accumulated just one more total yard than the Seahawks, 830-829.
Why the Line Seems Low
The Rams are getting considerable respect in the betting market despite being road underdogs. Our model makes this game closer to Seattle -7, and there are two primary factors keeping this number down. First, Matthew Stafford is under center for Los Angeles. The veteran quarterback is likely to take home MVP honors this season and remains one of the most dangerous playoff performers in the league. Second, this is a divisional matchup between teams that know each other extremely well. Los Angeles had success moving the ball against Seattle’s defense, particularly in Week 16 when Stafford torched the secondary for 457 yards.
Road Warriors Face Their Toughest Test
That said, plenty of factors are working against the Rams in this spot. For the third consecutive week, they’re playing on the road. Credit to Los Angeles for winning playoff games away from home, but those wins came against Carolina and Chicago—neither of which is in Seattle’s class. The Rams were a quality team this season in a brutal division; place them in almost any other division and they likely would have earned home field advantage in the playoffs.
While this represents a short trip for L.A., we can’t ignore that this is their third straight road game while Seattle enjoyed a first-round bye. Rest and home field matter in championship games. Home teams in the NFC Championship are 37-18 historically. In the AFC Championship, that record is 38-17. Of those 75 home wins, 45 were by seven points or more. The home team wins and covers more often than not at this stage.
A Rare Historical Anomaly
Here’s a stat that might surprise everyone: in NFL history, only five teams have ever successfully played their entire postseason on the road and still won their Conference Championship game. The Rams are attempting to become the sixth team to accomplish this feat. Those five teams are 5-0 in that situation. We simply don’t think Los Angeles will make it 6-0. History favors road warriors in this specific scenario, but we’re betting against lightning striking a sixth time.
Seattle’s Dominance in Key Metrics
We reference yards per play differential frequently in our analysis, and there’s good reason for that. The top four teams in the NFL this season in that category were the Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, and Broncos—the four teams playing in the conference championship games this weekend. Seattle holds the edge in this matchup with a league-best yards per play differential of +1.4. The Rams sit at a respectable +0.8, but the gap is significant.
Our model projects a Seattle win across every scenario. Using full-season data, the model predicts a 26-21 Seahawks win. Using the last seven games, it’s 35-15 Seattle. Using the last four games, it’s 30-6 Seattle. The more recent the data, the more dominant Seattle appears.
Efficiency Numbers Tell the Story
Consider the yards per point numbers for context. For the entire season, Seattle ranked best in the NFL at 11.9 on offense and 17.1 on defense. The Rams posted solid numbers as well—13.0 on offense and 16.0 on defense. However, the last seven games reveal a stark difference. Seattle produced a dominant 11.6 on offense and 20.0 on defense during that stretch. Los Angeles came in at 13.5 on offense and a concerning 13.3 on defense.
Those numbers are night and day. Seattle’s defensive efficiency has been remarkable down the stretch, ranking first in the league by DVOA. The Rams, meanwhile, have been shaky since late December. They barely escaped against Carolina and Chicago, two opponents well below Seattle’s caliber. That won’t suffice this week.
The Seahawks Have the Championship Blueprint
Seattle established itself as a Super Bowl contender before the season’s halfway mark and has performed accordingly ever since. Their 41-6 demolition of San Francisco in the divisional round is exactly the type of dominant performance we’ve seen from eventual Super Bowl champions throughout NFL history. Kenneth Walker III gashed the 49ers for 116 yards and three touchdowns on just 19 carries, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt.
The Seahawks enter this game at 15-3 including playoffs, with their three losses coming by a combined nine points. This is an elite team that simply hasn’t lost by much when it has lost.
Sam Darnold Can Manage This Game
We have all the respect in the world for Stafford, but Sam Darnold will be just fine. Yes, Darnold struggled mightily against L.A.’s defense earlier this season, throwing six interceptions in two games including four in the Week 11 road loss. But the Seahawks don’t need Darnold to be spectacular—they need him to be efficient. Last week against San Francisco, Darnold completed 12 of 17 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. His QB rating was 110.9. That’s the formula.
There’s a concern about running back depth after Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the divisional round. Charbonnet had split carries nearly evenly with Walker during the regular season and led Seattle with 12 rushing touchdowns. However, Walker showed he can handle the workload, and Seattle’s offensive line should continue opening running lanes.
The Complete Team Wins
We can’t forget that there are 11 guys on each side of the ball for both teams, plus depth on the bench. From top to bottom, the Seahawks are the superior team. They’re more rested. They’re at home in one of the league’s loudest stadiums. Their defense has been playing at an elite level. And despite the close regular season meetings, Seattle has momentum and confidence after dismantling the 49ers.
We think the Seahawks win this game by double digits. Maybe it’s a little closer than last week’s blowout of San Francisco, but we still expect Seattle to be decisive.
The Pick
Seattle Seahawks -2.5
No opinion on the total.
This line feels like a gift. The Seahawks are the better team, better rested, and playing at home in a conference championship game where home teams historically dominate. The Rams have exceeded expectations by reaching this point with two road playoff wins, but the journey ends here against a Seattle team built for this moment.