San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
NFC Divisional Playoff
Saturday, January 17, 2026 – 8:00 PM ET
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
Line: Seattle -7 | Total: 45 | MyBookie
Third Time’s the Charm?
This will be the third meeting between these NFC West rivals this season, and each game has been a defensive struggle. The 49ers edged out a 17-13 win in Seattle back in Week 1, getting a late drive from Brock Purdy and a crucial strip-sack near the goal line to seal the deal. Fast forward to Week 18, and the Seahawks flipped the script with a dominant 13-3 win at Levi’s Stadium that locked up the NFC’s top seed and knocked San Francisco into the wild card round.
In those two meetings, the 49ers have managed just 20 total points against the Seahawks defense. That’s a troubling trend heading into a playoff setting where every possession matters.
The Injury Factor
The 49ers continue to be plagued by injuries. They’ll be without All-Pro tight end George Kittle for the remainder of the playoffs after he suffered an Achilles tear in last week’s win at Philadelphia. His absence will be felt both in the passing game and as a run blocker, where his impact has been substantial. Star linebacker Fred Warner (fractured ankle) had his practice window opened but was not activated for this game. He joins Nick Bosa (ACL) on the sideline. The defense is also dealing with multiple limitations across the linebacking corps and secondary.
If there’s a glimmer of hope, left tackle Trent Williams is expected to play after missing the Week 18 matchup, and receiver Ricky Pearsall could return as well. Without solid tackle play in that earlier meeting, Purdy was pressured on over 31% of his dropbacks and saw his average depth of target plummet.
On Seattle’s side, Sam Darnold was a surprise addition to the injury report Thursday with an oblique issue and is listed as questionable. The Seahawks are otherwise relatively healthy and well-rested after the bye week.
Statistical Breakdown
The numbers heavily favor Seattle in this matchup. The Seahawks finished the regular season with the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing just 292 points (17.2 per game). They lead the league in third-down conversion rate allowed (32.0%) and yards per rush allowed (3.7).
One of the most significant edges comes in pass rush. Seattle generated 47 sacks during the regular season with a pressure rate that ranks 4th in the NFL (34.3%). The 49ers, by contrast, rank near the bottom of the league in generating pressure, recording only 20 sacks. That inability to disrupt the quarterback has been a season-long issue.
A particularly concerning trend for San Francisco: the 49ers offense ranks first in the league in passing efficiency when opponents don’t blitz, but drops all the way to 24th when facing pressure packages. Seattle’s defense ranks first in efficiency when they do choose to blitz. That schematic matchup could be decisive.
On the offensive side, both teams averaged similar total yardage, but Seattle has been more efficient at converting yards into points. The Seahawks lead the NFL in yards per point, both over the full season and over the last seven games. During that recent stretch, Seattle’s numbers are spectacular: 12.2 yards per point on offense and 18.6 on defense. The 49ers aren’t far behind at 12.5 and 16.0 respectively, but the biggest gap comes in yards per play differential. Seattle owns an NFL-best +1.3 mark, while San Francisco sits at +0.1, ranking 16th in the league.
When we convert those efficiency metrics to a betting line, the numbers favor Seattle by approximately 11 points. Our model agrees with that assessment. Using full-season data, the model projects Seattle 27-18. Using data from the last seven games, it’s Seattle 26-15. Using just the last four games, it’s Seattle 27-16.
What the Experts Are Saying
The consensus around this game is overwhelmingly in Seattle’s favor. NFL.com’s entire panel of five analysts picked the Seahawks, with predicted scores ranging from 21-13 to 27-23. One analyst noted that since 1984, teams with eight or more days of rest advantage are 7-0 in the playoffs, with the team on shorter rest held to 10 or fewer points in six of those seven games.
Advanced metrics tell a similar story. Seattle ranks first in overall DVOA (a measure of team efficiency) while San Francisco comes in 10th. On defense, Seattle is first in DVOA while the 49ers rank 27th. The gap is substantial, and it showed in Week 18 when Seattle held San Francisco to just 173 total yards – the fewest the 49ers had compiled in any regular season game during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure as head coach.
Some analysts did note that Darnold’s reliance on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is worth watching. When you remove throws to Smith-Njigba from his stats, Darnold’s efficiency numbers drop dramatically. If the 49ers defense can somehow limit that connection, it could open the door to turnovers. Darnold did lead the league with 20 giveaways during the regular season. But can a depleted San Francisco defense exploit that tendency? The pressure numbers suggest it will be difficult.
The Narrative
The 49ers are a fun team to root for. They traveled across the country last week, banged up and missing key players, and knocked off the Eagles in Philadelphia after failing to secure home field advantage down the stretch. That was impressive. Now they’re facing an even taller task on a shorter week against a rested, healthy Seattle team that just dominated them two weeks ago.
The Seahawks did what they had to do. They won at San Francisco in Week 18 to lock up home field throughout the playoffs. While the 49ers were flying back and forth to the East Coast last week, Seattle stayed home, rested, healed, and prepared. They have every statistical edge, the home field advantage, and the better health situation.
Mike Macdonald has turned this Seattle defense into arguably the best unit in football in just his second season as head coach. The Seahawks are a win away from reaching the NFC Championship Game for the first time since their Super Bowl run during the 2014 campaign. This is the fourth time this season Seattle has been a 7-plus point favorite at home; they’re 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in those situations.
Can the 49ers pull off another road upset? We don’t think so. Seattle is not only the better team – they may be the best team in the NFL and appear Super Bowl bound. They have every edge imaginable heading into Saturday night.
Our Picks
Seattle -7 – It’s not uncommon to see the better teams pull away in these playoff matchups. We saw it last week with the Patriots over the Chargers and the Texans over the Steelers. That’s the likely scenario here. Seattle’s defense has dominated this San Francisco offense twice already this season, and the 49ers are in even worse shape now with Kittle out and their defense severely undermanned.
Teaser Leg: Seattle -0.5 (PK) – We mentioned in our Bills/Broncos write-up that the Bills +7.5 would make a solid teaser leg. Well, Seattle -0.5 looks even better. Crossing through the key numbers of 7, 6, 3, and picking up Seattle essentially as a pick’em is tremendous value for what we believe is the NFC’s best team at home.
Total: No Opinion – Both of these teams have been involved in lower-scoring games lately, going 5-1 to the under in their last six combined. They combined for just 16 points when they met earlier this month. The under certainly has merit here given the defensive profiles of both teams, but we’ll pass on a prediction.
Pick: Seattle -7
Teaser: Seattle -0.5