Houston Texans at New England Patriots
NFL Divisional Playoff Picks and Predictions – January 18, 2026
Kickoff: Sunday, January 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TV: ESPN
| Matchup | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +3 (+100) | O 40.5 |
| New England Patriots | -3 (-120) | U 40.5 |
Odds courtesy of MyBookie
The Case Against the Patriots Being This Favored
The Patriots have been installed as 3-point home favorites for Sunday’s AFC Divisional showdown, but there’s a legitimate question that needs to be asked: Just how good is this New England team?
There’s no denying what head coach Mike Vrabel has accomplished in his first season. The Patriots have won 14 of their last 15 games after starting 1-2 and come in riding a 14-1 straight-up run with an 11-3-1 mark against the spread. That’s impressive on the surface. But dig a little deeper and the concerns become apparent.
New England’s regular season schedule was, to put it kindly, not exactly a gauntlet. Their stiffest tests? Two games against the Bills. And to their credit, they split those contests, with both games being close affairs. But beyond Buffalo, what quality opponents did they really face? Not many. When they finally did get a legitimate test in the Wild Card round against the Chargers, they won 16-3 in a defensive struggle where their offense managed just one touchdown.
Houston, on the other hand, has been battle-tested all season long. The Texans played two games against the Chiefs. They faced the Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers. Simply put, this Houston team knows what it’s like to line up against the league’s best week after week. The Patriots do not.
Does this mean New England is no good? Absolutely not. What it means is we don’t fully know how good they are. We have a much better understanding of what Houston brings to the table.
Defensive Dominance: The Texans’ Calling Card
Houston’s defense has been the story of the season, and it’s not particularly close. The Texans finished the regular season allowing just 277.2 yards per game, ranking first in the NFL. They were second in scoring defense, giving up only 17.4 points per contest. Their pass rush is relentless, with Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) combining for 27 sacks during the regular season.
The secondary is equally impressive. Four different defensive backs recorded at least four interceptions during the regular season. The unit finished with 19 total interceptions, good for third in the league, and posted a remarkable +17 turnover differential that ranked second overall.
We saw this defense at its peak in the Wild Card round against Pittsburgh. The Texans limited the Steelers to just 175 total yards and 6 points, recording four sacks and scoring two defensive touchdowns. It was complete domination.
The Patriots counter with a quality defense of their own. They finished fourth in scoring defense (18.8 points per game) and put on a clinic against Justin Herbert last week, sacking him six times and holding the Chargers to 207 yards and just 3 points. But here’s the difference: Houston’s defense has been doing this against everyone, including elite offenses. New England’s defensive numbers come largely against inferior competition.
Offensive Comparison and the Schedule Factor
On paper, the Patriots’ offense is significantly more explosive than Houston’s. New England ranked third in total yards (379.4 per game) and second in scoring (28.8 points per game). Quarterback Drake Maye finished the regular season with 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns while leading the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%) and yards per attempt (8.9).
The Texans’ offense, meanwhile, is more of a ball-control unit. They averaged just 5.1 yards per play, ranking 23rd in the NFL. They’re not going to wow you with explosive plays, but they’re efficient and, more importantly, they don’t turn the ball over.
Here’s where it gets interesting when you factor in schedule strength. The yards-per-point numbers for both teams are nearly identical. The Texans check in at 13.7 on offense and 16.3 on defense. The Patriots are at 13.5 and 16.2, respectively. Looking at the last seven games, things remain similar: Houston sits at 12.1 and 16.1, New England at 13.5 and 16.4.
When two teams have equal stats but one played a dramatically tougher schedule, what does that tell us? The team that faced better competition is likely the better team. That’s Houston.
The Patriots do hold an edge in yards-per-play differential at +1.1 compared to Houston’s +0.5. Our internal model converts that to roughly a Patriots -6.5 or -7 line. However, that model doesn’t account for strength of schedule. When we run full-season data through our model, it actually predicts a 23-17 Texans win. Using just the last seven games, it flips to Patriots 23-19.
Wild Card Performance and Key Matchups
Both teams put on defensive clinics in the opening round. Houston’s 30-6 dismantling of Pittsburgh saw the Texans break open a 7-6 third-quarter lead with a dominant fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers 23-0. C.J. Stroud had some ball security issues (five fumbles), but the defense made it irrelevant.
New England’s 16-3 handling of the Chargers was similarly impressive defensively. The Patriots led 6-3 at halftime before finally finding the end zone in the fourth quarter. It was a workmanlike performance, but Maye had some uncharacteristic issues, fumbling twice (losing one) and throwing an interception while backed into his own end zone.
That brings up perhaps the most critical matchup: Maye against this Houston defense. This will be the toughest task Maye has faced in his young career. He has never played a team with a top-five scoring and total defense entering the week. The pressure this pass rush generates, combined with a ballhawking secondary, presents a challenge unlike anything he’s seen.
Both teams are dealing with potential injury concerns. Houston may be without Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins, who is in concussion protocol. New England could be missing cornerback Christian Gonzalez, also in concussion protocol, though he was a limited practice participant Wednesday.
Trends Working in Houston’s Favor
Houston has won 10 consecutive games and is 7-3 ATS during that stretch. The Texans have won and covered in their last four games as underdogs, including impressive wins over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs in that role.
New England has won 11 straight as a favorite since their stunning opening-week loss to the Raiders. The Patriots posted a 12-5-1 ATS record in the regular season, followed by a cover as 3.5-point favorites against the Chargers.
Houston is 12-6 to the under this season, including a 7-2 under mark on the road. This game has defensive battle written all over it.
Houston’s Margin for Error
Looking at the Texans’ five losses this season, something stands out: they were all one-score games. They lost by 5 to the Rams, by 1 to the Bucs, by 7 to the Jags, by 8 to the Seahawks, and by 3 to the Broncos. This is a team that has been in every game all season long. Even when they lose, they don’t get blown out.
That’s crucial context for a spread this tight. Houston has shown repeatedly that they can hang with anyone.
Our Recommendations
We have two plays for this game, one we’ll call a lean and one we consider a stronger position.
The Lean: Texans +3
We believe Houston is the better team here. Getting 3 points in a game they can absolutely win outright provides solid value. The Texans have earned the benefit of the doubt with their schedule, their defensive dominance, and their ability to stay close in every contest.
The Stronger Play: Texans in a Teaser
This is where we have real confidence. The NFL playoffs are the only time we venture past standard 2-team, 6 or 7-point teasers. A 7-point teaser gets the Texans to +10, and we can cross through key numbers like 7 and 10.
Given how Houston has competed all season—all five losses by one score or less—getting double-digit points with the league’s best defense feels like the right move. Build a 2-team or 3-team teaser with the Texans as a leg. The Seahawks and Bills make for solid additional legs if you want to expand to a 3-teamer.
Final Thoughts
The narrative surrounding New England has been fun—the return of Vrabel, Maye’s emergence as an MVP candidate, the revival of a storied franchise. But narratives don’t cover spreads. The reality is we don’t truly know how good this Patriots team is because they haven’t been tested.
Houston has answered every question asked of them this season. They’ve beaten good teams, stayed competitive against everyone, and have a defense capable of shutting down any offense in football.
We’re taking the points.
Pick: Houston Texans +3
Teaser: Houston Texans +10 (7-point teaser)