San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview

Game Time: Sunday, January 11th, 2026 | 4:30 PM ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV: FOX
Odds: Eagles -3.5 | Total: 44.5 (MyBookie)

The 49ers head to Philadelphia for a Wild Card showdown against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, and San Francisco only has itself to blame for having to make this cross-country trip in the first place. A 13-3 home loss to Seattle in Week 18 cost the 49ers what would have been the top seed in the NFC, home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and ultimately home field in the Super Bowl since the game is being hosted in San Francisco this year. Adding insult to injury, a win would have also given them an extra week to rest and get healthy.

Instead, Kyle Shanahan’s squad limps into this one dealing with several key injuries while having to travel across the country to face a rested Eagles team that had the luxury of sitting their starters last week.

The 49ers’ Tale of Two Seasons

Despite the demoralizing finale, San Francisco still enters the postseason with a better record than their hosts at 12-5 compared to Philadelphia’s 11-6 mark. Prior to the Seattle debacle, the 49ers had won six consecutive games and were playing as well as any team in football. During that stretch, San Francisco’s offense was averaging an NFL-best 35.7 points per game.

That offensive explosion made last week’s performance even more jarring. The 49ers managed just 173 total yards against Seattle’s defense, marking the fewest ever in a game coached by Shanahan, and the three points were their lowest output since his very first game with the franchise back in 2017.

One NFL executive, speaking to The Athletic, actually likes San Francisco’s chances in this matchup despite the troubling end to the regular season. The exec cited “less dysfunction” with the 49ers compared to Philadelphia and suggested the Seattle game was an aberration rather than a sign of things to come.

Eagles Defense Could Be the Difference

While questions remain about the Eagles’ offense, there are no such concerns on the defensive side. Philadelphia ranks sixth in defensive DVOA, allows the ninth-lowest EPA per play, and surrenders just 19.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the league.

That’s particularly problematic for San Francisco given their track record this season. Four of the 49ers’ five losses came against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles fall right into that category.

On the other side, the 49ers’ defense has been far from dominant, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. They’ve given up at least 130 rushing yards in three of their last five games, including 180 to Seattle in the regular season finale. Their run defense ranks 31st in PFF’s grading and 24th in run defense DVOA, which could be a massive problem against Philadelphia’s ground game.

Injury Concerns Loom Large for San Francisco

The 49ers may get some reinforcements back for this game. Left tackle Trent Williams and receiver Ricky Pearsall both sat out the Seattle game, but Shanahan indicated afterward that both would have had a much better chance to play had that game been on Sunday rather than Saturday. Backup left tackle Austen Pleasants, who went undrafted in 2020 and was making his first NFL start, allowed three pressures filling in for Williams.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia could get a boost on the offensive line with left tackle Lane Johnson potentially returning from a foot injury.

What Our Model Says

Our model actually favors San Francisco in this matchup. Using full-season data, the model predicts a 21-21 game. When looking at just the last seven games, it has San Francisco on top 23-19.

However, we are hesitant to back the 49ers outright here for several reasons: the way their season ended with a complete no-show at home, the injury concerns, and the cross-country travel. They are definitely facing an uphill battle.

The Eagles’ Dysfunction Factor

Philadelphia’s season hasn’t been without its own issues. There were questions throughout the year about the relationship between the team’s top receivers and their quarterback, and why an offense featuring a talented line and elite skill players wasn’t performing up to expectations.

That said, the Eagles won the NFC East to become the first team in 21 years to capture consecutive division titles. They get a home game in the playoffs, and their defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in five of their last nine games.

Our Play: Teaser

Rather than taking a straight bet on the 49ers, we are incorporating them into a 10-point teaser alongside two other games we like this weekend:

49ers +14.5 / Rams PK / Jaguars +11

If you’ve read our other write-ups, you know we like the Jaguars and Rams this weekend. This play gets us the 49ers at +14.5, and it’s worth noting that the Eagles have won just two games by more than that margin all season, and those came against the Raiders and Giants.

We would be on the 49ers in a straight bet if not for the injuries and travel concerns, but we still believe they make a game of this. San Francisco is too well-coached and too talented to go quietly, and getting them at nearly a two-touchdown cushion in a teaser feels like a strong position. The last time these teams met in the playoffs was the 2022 NFC Championship Game, which Philadelphia won 31-7, but Brock Purdy injured his elbow on just the sixth offensive play in that contest and was severely limited the rest of the way. This should be a much more competitive affair.

The Pick: 49ers +14.5 (in teaser with Rams PK and Jaguars +11)