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STANFORD
CARDINAL vs WASHINGTON
STATE COUGARS
11/1/08
Stanford -30 over Washington State
- The reeling Washington State Cougars travel on down to
the beautiful San Francisco Peninsula to take on the rich kids from
Stanford University in this Pac-10 match-up.
The Cougars are winless in 5 conference games, while the Cardinal
are actually in the thick of things at 3-2 and just 1 game behind
co-leaders USC and Oregon, and just a half a game behind second
place Cal and Oregon State. Not that they have much of a chance of
winning the conference, but they are definitely looking at 4-2 after
this game.
Washington State, at 1-7 overall and 0-5 in the conference, has been
getting absolutely obliterated by their opponents, and are quite
possibly the worst team in Div 1-A football this year. You can throw
out their lone win, which was against bottom tier Div 1-AA Portland
State, and I will not include any stats from that game. So in their
7 games vs Div 1-A opponents, the Cougars closest losses have been
by 25 pts to UCLA, and 26 pts to Oklahoma St. Four Pac-10 teams have
hung over 60 pts on them. The average score in their 5 conference
games has been 58.4 - 6.6. That’s an average margin of defeat of
almost 52 pts. per game! (Stanford, in their 5 conference games,
have scored 100 points more than Washington State, and have given up
150 points less). And to make things even worse, the Cougars are now
down to their 3rd string QB, Kevin Lopina. His stats on the year,
over 3 games including 1 start, are 33 of 59 for 343 yds, with 0
TD’s and 6 INT’s, and just a 5.8 yd average gain per completion.
Some other negatives? They are a minus 14 in turnovers, they are
averaging only 11.8 first downs per game, they are averaging 8 punts
per game and 8 penalties for 80 yds per game, they are attempting
less than 1 FG per game, they are only averaging 70 yds rushing per
game and just 129 yds passing. And injuries have played a huge role
in the Cougar’s woes this year, as 16 of their 43 players to start a
game have combined to miss 39 games. The offensive line has had to
use 6 different lineups through their first 8 games and the team has
had to use 24 first time starters this year, as well as 20
underclassmen, and including 5 true freshmen..
As a defense, they are giving up close to 475 yds per game,
including 266 yds rushing.
They have given up an astonishing 34 TD’s on the ground! That’s 8
more rushing TD’s than the next worst team in the country in that
category. To give you some more perspective on how they compare to
other teams, out of the 119 Div 1-A teams, they are ranked 115th in
total offense, 110th in total defense, 115th in punt returns, 117th
in turnover margin, 117th in sacks ‘for’, 115th in sacks ‘against’
and 112th in tackles for loss. In other words, this is a very bad
team on both sides of the ball.
Washington State is coming off of a 69-0 home loss to powerhouse
USC. In that game, the Cougars were held to 116 total yds of
offense, 88 rushing and 28 through the air. USC piled up 362 yards
and 5 TD’s on the ground, and QB Mark Sanchez passed for another 253
yds and 5 TD’s through the air. That’s 10 TD’s in one game!
The Stanford Cardinal returned 16 starters from a team that went
just 4-8 last year, and at 4-4 they have already met that win total
with 4 games remaining. However, with Oregon, USC and California on
deck, they may have a tough time getting the 6 wins required for
bowl game consideration. Regardless, they have enough motivation to
not take this game lightly as it is definitely a must win
considering the remaining schedule. The Cardinal are undefeated at
home this year with wins against Oregon State, San Jose State and
Arizona. Both teams are coming off of their bye week.
Stanford is led on offense by junior QB Tavita Pritchard, who has
completed 58% of his passes for 1037 yds, 7 TD’s and 9 INT’s. But
that really isn’t Stanford’s bread and butter anyway. Where they
excel is on the ground where they have accumulated over 1500 yds and
14 TD’s, and a 5 YPC team average. They’ve got a great one, two
punch with returning star RB’s Tony Gerhart (138 carries for 779 yds,
9 TD’s, 5.6 YPC avg) and Anthony Kimble (76 carries for 452 yds, 3
TD’s, 5.9 YPC avg). The two have also combined for 17 receptions for
150 yds and a TD.
Probably the closest team to Washington State that they’ve faced so
far was the Washington Huskies. In that game, Pritchard was 16 of 24
for 222 yds and 3 TD’s with no INT’s. Gerhart was injured early in
the 1st Q but Kimble rushed for 157 yds and 2 TD’s, while backup RB
Jeremy Stewart added 67 more yards on just 11 carries. All in all,
466 yds of total offense and 5 TD’s in a 35-28 road victory. Of
course Washington has some semblance of an offense, whereas the
Cougars don’t.
Stanford ranks 2nd in the Pac-10 with an average of 192 yds per
game rushing, and they are 4th in the conference in rushing defense,
giving up just 110 per game on average. And in conference play, that
drops to just 103 yds per game allowed. Conference foes Oregon
State, Arizona and UCLA were all held under 86 yards on the ground.
The Cardinal have extra motivation is this game as the Cougars won
last year’s meeting at Pullman, plus they have won the last 4 trips
to Stanford. And you know they will be made well aware of that fact.
Stanford is not a powerhouse by any means. But they certainly have
the skills, motivation and advantages to turn this game into a rout.
Washington State brings virtually nothing to the table on either
offense or defense. To repeat what I said earlier, the Cougars have
been outscored by an average of almost 52 points per game in
conference play. So when you take that into consideration, the 30
point line does not seem unreasonable. The only other huge favorite
I have picked this year was Oklahoma –21 at Washington, and they won
that game by 41 points. I think this is another instance where there
isn’t much danger in laying the large line.
Note: There is rain in the forecast for the Palo Alto area this
weekend. If it’s just a steady light rain, I think that favors
Stanford and their running game. If it’s torrential downpour and
high wind, then I guess anything can happen, so keep an eye on the
weather reports.
Washington State is 0-7 ATS this year, and the lines have been huge
recently. They were 30 pt dogs at Oregon St and lost 66-13, and they
were 42 pt home dogs vs USC and lost 69-0. They are 3-10 ATS in
their last 13 roles as road underdog.
Stanford is 3-0 both SU and ATS at home this year. They are 8-2-1
ATS in their last 11 roles as a home favorite.
My pick here is the Stanford Cardinal –30 pts.
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