CINCI AT UCONN
Uconn +3 over Cincinnati - Lot's of similarities
between these two Big East Teams. Cinci has had QB problems this
year while Uconn will likely be down to their 3rd stringer Saturday
as Zach Frazer looks doubtful as of this writing. (Pike will go for
Cinci) Both teams are stingy on the defensive side of the ball and
both teams have had similar results against similar competition. If
Cinci has an edge it's in the kicking game as they sport some of the
best punting numbers in the country. Likewise, the field goal
kicking, where Uconn kicker Tony Ciaravino has been benched after
missing a 42 yarder with under two minutes to play at Rutgers which
would have given the Huskies the win.
Uconn became "good" in 2003. It's when everything
came together for the program and they officially "arrived" on the
scene. In that time, 2003 to the present, one thing has remained
constant. Uconn has performed poorly on the road yet has been
fantastic at home. 2003 was the only year they had a winning road
record, going 4-2. Every year since, they have lost on the road. Yet
at home, they have been one of the better teams in the entire
nation, going 28-7 since 2003. In that time they have been an
underdog 16 times, going 11-5 against the number. It's safe to say
that Uconn has a significant home field advantage. Uconn returns
home this week after 3 straight games on the road........there's
no place like home.
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Throw in some added motivation to go along with the
home field edge and we have the makings of a nice spot for Uconn.
That added motivation comes in the form of Uconn having never beaten
Cinci. They are 0-4 against the Bearcats with last year being
perhaps the worst loss of all as Uconn went to Cinci ranked #16 in
the Nation and left with their tail between their legs in a 27-3
Cinci QB Tony Pike is coming back this week after
breaking his non throwing arm. He may have picked the wrong week as
Uconn has done a great job getting after the QB with 18 sacks on the
year. Count on Pike getting rattled this week. It's tough to come
back with that kind of an injury and not worry about getting
reinjured. Especially after you find yourself on your back a few
Ultimately we don't think this game will be decided
by the QB's but rather, the running games and the defensive side of
the ball. On a neutral field we'd rate this game dead even. The
intangibles mentioned above put Uconn over the top here, with their
fantastic home field play, and the added incentive for Coach Edsall
and the Juniors and Seniors on this Uconn Team. If it comes down to
a last second field goal, we'll be crossing our fingers with Uconn
using a new Freshman kicker this week, but we'll take our chances.
Watch the number. We like the Huskies straight up here. But if/when
they announce for sure that Zach Frazer won't play, you're likely to
see an overreaction with the line. Currently there are a few +3's
out there and you're likely to see more soon.
2* Uconn +3
(STILL A PLAY AT +2.5)
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home