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USC AT OREGON STATE

Laying big time points on any game in any sport is not something we are in the habit of doing. There are too many negative results possible when doing so. You can be technically correct in your analysis and your selection, yet lose your wager when your team fails to cover as a result of a last second TD or field goal. On the other hand, when your taking points and betting an underdog, the opposite is true. You can be wrong, and still win. Make the spread work for you, not against you.

In this game USC opened up as a 21 point favorite at the first book to post lines, Bookmaker.com and the early money was all USC pushing the line up to where it now sits at USC -24. We can certainly understand the line move. Oregon State lost to Stanford in their opener giving up 36 points along the way and then was hammered by Penn State 45-14 in their 2nd game of the year. Last week they blew out Hawaii but as we all know, it's a Hawaii team that's a shell of it's former self.

Oregon State was 9-4 a year ago, and they lost most of their defense and return 7 on offense. You can still learn a little about the team in looking back to last year. When you do, you notice that just about every time they stepped up in class, they didn't deliver. 3 of their 4 losses weren't even close, and they came at the hands of USC, Cinci and UCLA. Their most impressive win came over their rival Oregon who at the time, was banged up.

BIG AL's 21-2 ATS THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH GOES TONIGHT

We've mentioned before, just because it's Thursday Night and the game is nationally televised, doesn't mean you have to play it. Some games are best left alone. With that in mind, if we had to make a selection here, we'd lean towards USC and the over for obvious reasons. There's always added incentive for a team like USC to pile it on. It's all about the polls baby. 52-7 gets a lot more #1 votes than 24-10 does. Add in the National exposure, with all eyes on them, and USC will score 70 points if it's at all possible. Pete Carroll won't be calling off the dogs.

Also note that Penn State beat Oregon State 45-14. If Penn State continues to win in impressive fashion, USC will likely be competing for votes with them. Final scores against common opponents come into play. You know the argument........well, Penn State beat them 45-14 yet USC only beat them 31-17 so therefore, Penn State must be better. Whether or not you agree with the logic, it's a fact that it comes into play. Point being, Pete Carroll know this as does every member of the Trojans. The incentive to win big is there, week in and week out. USC -24 AND OVER 51.5

BETTING TRENDS


SOUTHERN CAL
Southern Cal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Southern Cal's last 13 games
Southern Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games when playing Oregon State


OREGON STATE
Oregon State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Oregon State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 7 games
Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal

 

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