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USC AT OREGON
STATE
Laying big time points on any game in any sport is not something
we are in the habit of doing. There are too many negative results
possible when doing so. You can be technically correct in your
analysis and your selection, yet lose your wager when your team
fails to cover as a result of a last second TD or field goal. On the
other hand, when your taking points and betting an underdog, the
opposite is true. You can be wrong, and still win. Make the spread
work for you, not against you.
In this game USC opened up as a 21 point favorite at the first
book to post lines, Bookmaker.com and the early money was all USC
pushing the line up to where it now sits at USC -24. We can
certainly understand the line move. Oregon State lost to Stanford in
their opener giving up 36 points along the way and then was hammered
by Penn State 45-14 in their 2nd game of the year. Last week they
blew out Hawaii but as we all know, it's a Hawaii team that's a
shell of it's former self.
Oregon State was 9-4 a year ago, and they lost most of their
defense and return 7 on offense. You can still learn a little about
the team in looking back to last year. When you do, you notice that
just about every time they stepped up in class, they didn't deliver.
3 of their 4 losses weren't even close, and they came at the hands
of USC, Cinci and UCLA. Their most impressive win came over their
rival Oregon who at the time, was banged up.
BIG
AL's 21-2 ATS THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF
THE MONTH GOES TONIGHT
We've mentioned before, just because it's Thursday Night and the
game is nationally televised, doesn't mean you have to play it. Some
games are best left alone. With that in mind, if we had to make a
selection here, we'd lean towards USC and the over for obvious
reasons. There's always added incentive for a team like USC to pile
it on. It's all about the polls baby. 52-7 gets a lot more #1 votes
than 24-10 does. Add in the National exposure, with all eyes on
them, and USC will score 70 points if it's at all possible. Pete
Carroll won't be calling off the dogs.
Also note that Penn State beat Oregon State 45-14. If Penn State
continues to win in impressive fashion, USC will likely be competing
for votes with them. Final scores against common opponents come into
play. You know the argument........well, Penn State beat them 45-14
yet USC only beat them 31-17 so therefore, Penn State must be
better. Whether or not you agree with the logic, it's a fact that it
comes into play. Point being, Pete Carroll know this as does every
member of the Trojans. The incentive to win big is there, week in
and week out. USC -24 AND OVER 51.5
BETTING TRENDS
SOUTHERN CAL
Southern Cal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Southern Cal's last 13 games
Southern Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games on the
road
Southern Cal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games when
playing Oregon State
OREGON STATE
Oregon State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Oregon State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 7 games
Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games when
playing Southern Cal
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