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Betting the MLB Playoffs – Look for Value
10/7/09
The MLB Playoffs are set to begin today with the ALDS and the NLDS getting underway with 6 of the 8 playoff teams in action. The Red Sox and Angels are the only two playoff teams not in action tonight as they wait until Wednesday Night. Sportsbooks have posted odds on all of the series and have also updated their odds to win the World Series on each of the playoff teams. Those odds will be posted below.
Betting on the MLB playoffs can be one of the most profitable times of year for the savvy sports bettor. This is because their can be tremendous value this time of year, particularly with underdogs. Think about it. All of these playoff teams are winners. All, with the exception of the Twins, have won around 57% of their Games. (The Twins won 53% and the Yanks won 63%.) Put another way, if a team won 57% of their Games, you could have laid a price of -130 in each of their Games this year, and would have broke even.
Take the Dodgers for example. At one point in July they had the best record in baseball. since then, they are just about a .500 team. Yet even at just .500, the Dodgers would be profitable if you were able to get +130 on them, which is precisely what their odds are in Game one against the Cards. Remember, this is a Dodgers team that managed to go 50-31 at home this year. again, put another way, that’s 61% winners at home for the Dodgers this year which means you could have laid a favorite price of -160 on the Dodgers every time they took the field at home and you wouldn’t have lost money.
Of course there’s more to handicapping a baseball Game than just looking at a teams wins and losses. You have to consider pitching matchups, Managers, momentum, bullpens and so on. But the point we’re trying to drive home here is that all of these teams have talent. All of these teams had good years. Even the Twins, who won the fewest Games of any of these playoff teams, managed to win 16 of 20 down the stretch to get in and perhaps have more momentum than any of the other teams.
Look for value. Don’t get caught up laying big prices. Get a feel for which way the momentum is swaying. Get a feel for destiny. It happens in baseball all the time. The 98 Yanks. The Rockies a couple of years ago. You can spot those fantastic post season runs long before they happen if you know what to look for.
From a betting standpoint, I’d stay away from the Yankees in their opening series. At odds of almost 4-1 there is absolutely no value in betting the Yankees. Sure, lots of square will bet them, and lots of squares may win, but that doesn’t make it a smart bet. The Twins are hot, but the Yanks are 7-0 against them this year. We’ll pass from a betting standpoint, but we’ll pick the Yanks in a sweep.
There may be some value in the Rockies at +150 based solely on the Phillies bullpen problems. Post season baseball is filled with fantastic late inning comebacks and the Phillies just can’t hold a lead. If backing the Rockies in any individual Games, you’ll never be out of it until the final out.
You’d have to consider the Dodgers as well although they look to be overmatched on the mound. Wainwright and Carpenter are better than anyone in the Dodgers rotation and that figures to turn the lights out for LA in a short series.
As far as the Bosox and Angels go, take your pick. Either side can have value here as the price is right either way. The Bosox are a short price -120 in that series. We’ll pass the series but will instead look for value in individual Games.
The fun is just beginning. So sit back, pick your spots, look for value, and most importantly, enjoy the post season. You can’t beat this time of year. Football in full swing, the MLB playoffs kicking in and something to look forward to just about every day this month! Check the Bettorsworld home page during the MLB playoffs for Our picks. We have had some great post season runs Ourselves here!
Here are the current World Series Odds
Yankees +165
Bosox +545
Phillies +610
Cards +625
Dodgers +825
Rockies +1215
Twins +2050
For example, a $100 wager on the Cards would win $625