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2009 Breeders Cup Predictions and Analysis
11/7/09
Friday at the Breeders Cup will be fun, but it is only the tip of the iceberg in comparison to Saturday. All the best races are on Saturday. Those races include the Mile, Turf, and Classic just to name a few. If you are mildly interested in horse racing then the Breeders Cup World Championships are two days of racing that dont want to miss out on. There will be endless wagering opportunities. Lets take a glance at some of the races on Saturday.
Juvenile Turf
Pounced looks like a strong pick to win this race at 9/2. He is shipping in from across the pond after running second in a $510k race in France. The son of Rahy is lightly raced and in the best of hands with trainer John Gosden. Viscount Nelson will be tough for jockey Johnny Murtagh and trainer Aidan OBrien. The son of Giants Causeway finished second in the Grade 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last out. This race is likely to be won by a European, but Americans Bridgetown and Interactif are both strong candidates.
Turf Sprint
Trainer Wesley Ward has been quoted saying that CannoNBAll wont lose this race. His odds are great 8-1, and he proved he is a top class runner when he finished second at Royal Ascot this summer. He cant be overlooked at that kind of price. California Flag has great speed from the inside and will be setting the pace as the favorite. Last years winner Desert Code is a great price at 20-1, but seems to have lost a step in his last few races.
Sprint
The 7/5 favorite, Zensational, looks immensely tough on the rail. Trainer Bob Baffert has been quoted saying he is among the three best horses he has ever trained. Thats quite a statement from a man that has won the Kentucky Derby three times. Capt Candyman Can and Gayego are the strongest closers in the race. Gayego will be second choice, but the improving Capt Candyman Can will be a decent price. Id also use Fatal Bullet and Fleeting Spirit on exotic tickets.
Juvenile
The undefeated Lookin at LUcky holds a strong hand in this one for trainer Bob Baffert. He is too heavily favored at 8/5 but certainly looks very strong. He has a win at the distance and over the track. Dfunnybone for Richard Dutrow also looks strong after a pair of stakes wins in New York. He has strong tactical speed and has been improving. Aikenite ran very well to be second in the Dixiana Breeders Futurity last out. He could be peaking in this race for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Dirt Mile
Mastercraftsman looks ultra tough in here at odds of 6/5 after running behind Sea The Stars this year in Europe. Sea The Stars has been hailed as one of the greatest of all time across the pond. Mastercraftsman was finishing within a few lengths of Sea the Stars each time they met. The pace situation figures to be ideal for him. Bullsbay looks like the strongest American contender in the race after taking the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga this summer. He was third behind Rachel Alexandra in his last race.
Mile
Last years winner Goldikova is this years favorite at 8/5. The filly is quite a freak, but will face much stiffer competition this time around. She will have to beat the likes of Delagator, Zacinto, COurt Vision, and Justenuffhumor. Delagator and Zacinto have been facing some of the best horses in Europe and are quite adept on the turf. Justenuffhumor ran poorly last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile, but had no pace in which to chase. Id put a line through that race. He has been running strong all year and will be tough at odds of 10-1.
Turf
The killer early speed of Presious Passion will have a big impact on this race. The front runner has improved greatly this year and offers value at odds of 4-1. Conduit is the 7/5 favorite after taking the Breeders Cup Turf last year. His form has been strong, but Ill look elsewhere for a better price. The 2006 winner of this race, Red Rocks, is a good value play at 20-1. Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi must be includedon all exotic tickets.
Classic
This race could go to any number of runners, but I like Quality Road at 12-1. The three-year-old winner of the Florida Derby has been steadily improving all year long and I dont think we have seen his best race yet. I dont like the favorite Zenyatta. I wont be using her on any tickets. Other horses to think about are Colonel John, Rip Van Winkle and Einstein. Travers winner Summer Bird is a strong contender at 9/2. He has been racing well under jockey Kent Desormeaux and has been working well on the track.