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2009 Breeders Cup Predictions and Analysis
11/7/09
Friday at the Breeders Cup will be fun, but it is only the tip of the iceberg
in comparison to Saturday. All the best races are on Saturday. Those races
include the Mile, Turf, and Classic just to name a few. If you are mildly
interested in horse racing then the Breeders Cup World Championships are two
days of racing that don’t want to miss out on. There will be endless wagering
opportunities. Let’s take a glance at some of the races on Saturday.
Juvenile Turf
Pounced looks like a strong pick to win this race at 9/2. He is shipping in from
across the pond after running second in a $510k race in France. The son of Rahy
is lightly raced and in the best of hands with trainer John Gosden. Viscount
Nelson will be tough for jockey Johnny Murtagh and trainer Aidan O’Brien. The
son of Giant’s Causeway finished second in the Grade 2 Champagne Stakes at
Doncaster last out. This race is likely to be won by a European, but Americans
Bridgetown and Interactif are both strong candidates.
Turf Sprint
Trainer Wesley Ward has been quoted saying that Cannonball won’t lose this race.
His odds are great 8-1, and he proved he is a top class runner when he finished
second at Royal Ascot this summer. He can’t be overlooked at that kind of price.
California Flag has great speed from the inside and will be setting the pace as
the favorite. Last year’s winner Desert Code is a great price at 20-1, but seems
to have lost a step in his last few races.
Sprint
The 7/5 favorite, Zensational, looks immensely tough on the rail. Trainer Bob
Baffert has been quoted saying he is among the three best horses he has ever
trained. That’s quite a statement from a man that has won the Kentucky Derby
three times. Capt Candyman Can and Gayego are the strongest closers in the race.
Gayego will be second choice, but the improving Capt Candyman Can will be a
decent price. I’d also use Fatal Bullet and Fleeting Spirit on exotic tickets.
Juvenile
The undefeated Lookin at Lucky holds a strong hand in this one for trainer Bob
Baffert. He is too heavily favored at 8/5 but certainly looks very strong. He
has a win at the distance and over the track. D’funnybone for Richard Dutrow
also looks strong after a pair of stakes wins in New York. He has strong
tactical speed and has been improving. Aikenite ran very well to be second in
the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity last out. He could be peaking in this race for
trainer Todd Pletcher.
Dirt Mile
Mastercraftsman looks ultra tough in here at odds of 6/5 after running behind
Sea The Stars this year in Europe. Sea The Stars has been hailed as one of the
greatest of all time across the pond. Mastercraftsman was finishing within a few
lengths of Sea the Stars each time they met. The pace situation figures to be
ideal for him. Bullsbay looks like the strongest American contender in the race
after taking the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga this summer. He was third behind
Rachel Alexandra in his last race.
Mile
Last year’s winner Goldikova is this year’s favorite at 8/5. The filly is quite
a freak, but will face much stiffer competition this time around. She will have
to beat the likes of Delagator, Zacinto, Court Vision, and Justenuffhumor.
Delagator and Zacinto have been facing some of the best horses in Europe and are
quite adept on the turf. Justenuffhumor ran poorly last out in the Shadwell Turf
Mile, but had no pace in which to chase. I’d put a line through that race. He
has been running strong all year and will be tough at odds of 10-1.
Turf
The killer early speed of Presious Passion will have a big impact on this race.
The front runner has improved greatly this year and offers value at odds of 4-1.
Conduit is the 7/5 favorite after taking the Breeders Cup Turf last year. His
form has been strong, but I’ll look elsewhere for a better price. The 2006
winner of this race, Red Rocks, is a good value play at 20-1. Spanish Moon and
Dar Re Mi must be included on all exotic tickets.
Classic
This race could go to any number of runners, but I like Quality Road at 12-1.
The three-year-old winner of the Florida Derby has been steadily improving all
year long and I don’t think we have seen his best race yet. I don’t like the
favorite Zenyatta. I won’t be using her on any tickets. Other horses to think
about are Colonel John, Rip Van Winkle and Einstein. Travers winner Summer Bird
is a strong contender at 9/2. He has been racing well under jockey Kent
Desormeaux and has been working well on the track.