Top Sportsbooks
LSU vs Alabama SEC Football Showdown
11/7/09
This grudge match between Alabama and LSU should be the game that decides who
will represent the Western Division in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. In
the Crimson and White corner we have the undefeated champion the Alabama Crimson
Tide at 8-0 on the year and 5-0 in the SEC. This team led by Coach Nick Saban
might not win any beauty contests, but they get the job done. They are
undefeated on the year and the main reason for that is their defense. This
Crimson Tide defense is as good as it gets, and they are a nightmare for any
offensive coordinator to scheme against.
Nick Saban is a hardnosed defensive minded coach, and it shows thru his players.
They are on a mission to get back to Atlanta, and get even with the Florida
Gators, but first they have to get past their game this weekend against the
challenger in the opposite corner the LSU Tigers. This LSU team is very similar
to Alabama. They are not a team that wins games with style, but they get the job
done. Their lone loss came to the #1 team in the country the Florida Gators.
They showed a lot of heart in that game against Florida, but was unable to make
the plays on offense and lost 13-3.
Since that loss this LSU team has looked very good with a 31-10 victory over
Auburn and a 42-0 victory over Tulane. More importantly it seems like their
offense is slowly starting to find their rhythm, but they are about to get the
acid test against this Alabama defense.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
Both Alabama and LSU’s Achilles heel this year has been their offensive
production. Both teams have had to rely on great defense to win ball games this
year, but both of them cannot do that this week and get the win. Whichever team
is able to get things going offensively and be most effective is going to win
this game.
In Alabama’s last 3 games their offense has almost been nonexistent. In their
22-3 victory over Ole Miss Alabama didn’t have one offensive touchdown, and in
their 12-10 victory over Tennessee last week they had to rely on kicker Leigh
Tiffin to kick 4 FG’s to get the win. This Alabama offense can only rely on
their defense so many times to win games for them before it ends up coming back
to haunt them. RB Mark Ingram will be the key for this Alabama offense if they
are going to get things going. He is going to need another Heisman performance
like he had against South Carolina to make up for the lack of a passing game. If
he is able to have a big day he could give the Alabama defense all the cushion
they need to get the win.
Coming into the year it was assumed that QB Jordan Jefferson would continue to
get better after coming in the last few games last year and performing well, but
that has not been the case. He has struggled getting things going for most of
the year, but in their last two games he has started to get things going.
Against Auburn Jefferson went 21/31 for 232 yards and 2 TD. This LSU offense
doesn’t need a huge performance from Jefferson, but they just need him to make
the big play when they need it, and to not make crucial mistakes, because
whichever offense is able to do that will get the win Saturday.
THE FINAL VERDICT
If you like games with a lot of offense, points, and flash then this isn’t the
game for you. This game will be a hard hitting smash mouth football game. Both
these offenses like to establish the run first to open things up, and both teams
have QB’s in Greg McElroy and Jordan Jefferson that have not lived up to their
expectations as of yet.
Both teams should be able to establish the run enough to give their QB’s
opportunities to move the ball down the field, but the question will be which QB
will be able to make those plays when their team needs them to. The X Factor
that is going to play a big role in this game is RB Mark Ingram. He is going to
be McElroy’s best friend this Saturday if he can have the success he has had all
year moving the chains.
We expect Ingram to get things going early against this LSU defense, and make
life as easy as possible for McElroy. Ingram should put them in a situation to
get an early lead and we have seen how difficult it is to beat this Alabama
defense when they get an early lead.
The last 4 in this series have been close. There's really no reason to expect
anything but another close game. Both teams have put up some fantastic numbers
this year, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Likewise, we find
them both at the top of the turnover margin category. We make this game dead
even on a neutral field. So the correct line all depends on how much you're
willing to give the Tide for home field advantage. Home field in college ball
ranges anywhere from 0 to 7 or 8 points depending on the team. It's safe to say
Alabama's home field is worth more than the standard field goal, but less than a
TD. Therefore, just one way to look here for us. LSU
+7.5
Looking for more picks? There's no better place to turn. Picks from 75+ of the top Sports Handicapping services in the Nation. Get all the Locks, all the Games of the year and every play that comes down the pike from handicappers that crush the books year after year. Details Here
FREE NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS VIA OUR NEWSLETTER THIS FOOTBALL SEASON INCLUDING THE FAMOUS KEY RELEASES!!