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Miami Looking for Payback Over Oklahoma - Sooners Favored by 7.5
College Football Game of the Week
10/3/09
Miami has had the toughest four game schedule to open the season that I can
ever remember. They opened their year up with a win over rival Florida State in
a classic that went down to the last play. Then they came back 10 days later on
a Thursday and put it on Georgia Tech at home. They dominated that game from
start to finish, and people were starting to say that DA U was back. Then all of
that came to an end this past Saturday in Blacksburg, Virginia. Virginia Tech
dominated that game much like Miami had dominated their game the week before.
Virginia Tech committed to stopping the run and they held the Hurricane rushing
attack to 59 yards. QB Jacory Harris who had been so good in his first two games
struggled going 9/25 for 150 yards and 1 INT. Jacory Harris and the Hurricanes
are looking to get back on track and prove to the country that DA U is back.
Oklahoma could not have started the season any worse. Not only did they drop
their opening game to BYU, but they lost their star QB Sam Bradford to a
shoulder injury. The latest wire reports say Bradford won't start this week and
likely won't play. We shall see. Since their loss to BYU Oklahoma hasn’t given
up a single point. They have beat Idaho State 64-0 and Tulsa 45-0. They are
looking to prove to the country they are still Oklahoma and still deserve to be
in the BCS title game. A win against Miami would do just that.
MIAMI’S KEY TO VICTORY
Miami needs to get back to what they do best. Get the ball into the hands of
their playmaker. Jacory Harris has got to have a big game if the Hurricanes are
going to get the victory. In Miami’s two wins everything went thru Jacory
Harris. He was the leader and he was the one that got it done. Against FSU he
almost threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs and against Georgia Tech he went 20/25 for
270 yards and 3 TD’s. That is the kind of production Miami is going to need from
Harris for them to win the game. With this Oklahoma defense playing so well as
of late Harris is going to need to be on his A game to get the job done here. If
his offensive line gives him the time he needs to go through his reads and make
the right decisions then Miami will be very tough to beat.
OKLAHOMA’S KEY TO VICTORY
Ever since Oklahoma’s opening loss to BYU this Sooner defense has been close to
unstoppable. This season Oklahoma is giving up an astonishing 4.7 points per
game and is only allowing 223 yards of total offense. Both rank #1 in the Big
12. If Oklahoma wants to continue their journey to the BCS title game they are
going to need their defense to continue their dominant ways. If you stop Jacory
Harris you stop Miami. Virginia Tech was able to do just that and they were able
to completely dominate the Hurricanes. Oklahoma needs to get to Jacory Harris
early and often and put him into bad situations and get him to make some
mistakes. Oklahoma’s offense should be able to put up some points no matter who
is the QB, but for Oklahoma to win this game Oklahoma is going to have to stop
Jacory Harris and this Hurricane offense.
THE FINAL VERDICT
The opening line on this game was Oklahoma -6.5 and it was quickly bet up to -7
and continued to climb to -7.5 even -8 in one spot. The line on this game and
the reaction of the early bettors taking Oklahoma is a direct reflection of
Miami's last game. It's a case of what have you done for me lately. All the
while, Oklahoma was scoring 64 and 48 points while pitching two shut outs. So,
the natural perception among the public is, hey, Miami sucks and Oklahoma is the
same team that played for a title a year ago.
What some bettors fail to realize here, is that Oklahoma beat two cupcakes, and LOST to BYU, who in turn was blown out by Florida State, who, oh yeah, Miami beat! What some bettors also fail to realize is that Miami has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country in the early going. They are battle tested. This tough early schedule can only help the Hurricanes here. Oklahoma hasn't broken a sweat since September 5th, almost a month ago.
Want more? 2007 wasn't that long ago. In 2007, week 2 to be exact, Miami traveled to Oklahoma and was whipped 51-13. Ouch. Total domination. Can you say revenge? At this time we prefer to judge Oklahoma based on their one real opponent, BYU. Likewise, we choose to judge Miami by their tough early season schedule in which they are 2-1 against 3 top 20 opponents, scoring 38 on one and 33 on the other, with a bad game against Va Tech thrown in. We're going to take +7.5 with the Hurricanes and may even make a play on the money line for a straight up Miami win as well. Miami +7.5
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