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Handicapper "Rick J" Picks Syracuse to Cover Spread in Week One
9/5/09
This year Bettorsworld welcomes back "Rick J". Rick will provide our readers with insight into how he goes about making his selections each week. He's been a steady winner over the years and is sure to zero in on some games that might not have been on your radar. You can also visit Rick on the net at his blog.
NCAA football is here. A word of warning though…. Most bettors start out the
season betting much more then they should and by mid season if they take some
hits they are out of action. I have seen it time and again.
The best way to wager is to set a sum of money you can well afford to lose. Then
bet 1/20 on each wager. Or if you wish to be real conservative 1/40. That way
you have a good chance of being around at the end of the season and with some
luck and good picking you can make money.
My methods of picking games are a combination of a number of variables. The
first variable is what the public is doing on the game. The public threshold
numbers are different in every sport and in some sports only apply to home
teams. In NCAA Football this is the case. Home teams where the public is betting
less then 30 percent have an edge overall.
This alone will not do the trick. But I use that as a starting point. I then
have several neural net models that predict the outcome of the game. I then
finish it up with some situational analysis.
The game Sat that meets my criteria for a play is Syracuse +7. The public
is on them 14% to 86% on Minnesota. In addition your getting a key number +7 .
The models I look at predict the following scores:
+5.5 +4 +4 +2
There are 3 situations in favor of Syracuse to none for Minnesota. The top
situation is:
Play Against - Any team (MINNESOTA) - in the first week of the season, after
closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB
returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. (37-11 over
the last 10 seasons.)
This under my method qualifies as a play for Syracuse +7
My NCAA Football record for the last 3 years
NCAA FB 09-10
Leans 1-0
NCAA FB 08-09
Sides 19-15 +3.25
totals 4-5 -1.25
NCAA FB (07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 40-20-3 +18.90
NCAA FB (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
Total NCAAFB Sides: 74-52-3 +20.99
Totals: 55-37-3 +16.02
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
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