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UCLA Home Underdogs by 3.5 to Cal
Makre or Break PAC-10 Game
10/17/09
It is a little spooky when you compare both UCLA and California’s opening schedule and results. Both California and UCLA opened their season up exactly the same. Both teams opened up their year 3-0 with a big out of conference victory. For Cal it was against Minnesota, and for UCLA it was Tennessee. Both teams and fan bases started to get excited for the rest of the season. Then both teams opened up Pac 10 play and lost their opening two conference games. UCLA lost to Stanford and then Oregon and Cal lost to Oregon then USC.
Both teams desperately need a conference victory. This Cal team was preseason
Top 10 and with Heisman hopeful Jahvid Best on the team many experts picked Cal
to finally knock off USC for the Pac 10 title. Things have not gone according to
plan, but they still have hope for a successful season, and for that to happen
they cannot afford to drop another game to UCLA.
UCLA might not have had the same preseason hype surrounding them, but with Coach
Rick Neuheisel jumping on board as Head Coach the future of UCLA football was
looking bright. They desperately need to close out this season well to get
recruits believing that this team can compete for conference championships.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
Jahvid Best got his Heisman campaign off to a fast start in his first 3 games
scoring 8 TD’s. The only problem with having that much success is teams start to
key in on you and that is exactly what has happened with Best. In Cal’s two
losses Jahvid Best has been held to 102 yards and 0 TD’s. Teams are stacking the
box and forcing Cal’s QB Kevin Riley to beat them with his arm and so far he has
not been successful. We don’t expect that to change now.
UCLA will try to mimic what Oregon and USC were able to do by committing to
stopping the run. Expect UCLA to gamble with quite a few blitzes and stunts to
confuse this Cal offensive line. If UCLA is able to stop the run and force Riley
to beat them with his arm UCLA will be ready to defend the pass also. This UCLA
secondary is ranked #1 in the Pac 10 in pass defense allowing just 162 yards per
game. The good news for Cal is that UCLA has had trouble stopping the run so far
this year. UCLA is 7th in the Pac 10 in rush defense allowing 124 yards per
game.
Cal’s offensive line is going to have to play very well and open up holes for
Best, because if they are unable to do so their QB Kevin Riley will struggle in
the passing game against this UCLA secondary.
THE FINAL VERDICT
For these two teams this game is a make or break game for their season. Neither
team can afford to drop to 0-3 in conference play, and whoever does fall
Saturday night will have to get things together or the wheels are going to fall
off quickly. With so much hype around this Cal Bear football team before the
season started if they start this year off 0-3 fingers are going to start
getting pointed and that is never good for a football program.
We expect this Cal Bear team to play with a sense of urgency because they
understand the importance of this game. The team that has the most to lose is
always a dangerous team with their backs against the wall. We expect Jahvid Best
to have a very good game against a suspect UCLA rush defense, and get back on
the track he was headed before this Cal team hit this skid.
Can't explain Cal going from explosive to pathetic, only managing a field goal their last two times out, but a return to the same form which saw them pummel Maryland 52-13 and they'll be tough to beat here. It's a big if though, so tread lightly. Cal -3.5
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