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England vs. Algeria

World Cup Key Release

6/18/10

We have made mention in previous write ups of the talent gap between some of these teams in the World Cup. Unfortunately, the talent gap isn't always reflected on the scoreboard. Such was the case when Spain lost to Switzerland. They outplayed the Swiss 24-8 and controlled the ball 63% of the time. They hit the crossbar with one shot and had numerous other opportunities. They just couldn't put it in the net. Likewise when England tied the USA 1-1 in their first game. England was clearly the better team. It just didn't work out that way for them on the scoreboard. Such is the way in Soccer betting.

But we have also seen the superior teams break through in other games, such as Argentina pounding South Korea 4-1. That was an example of a superior team capitalizing on their opportunities. Friday we have yet another mismatch in terms of the talent gap between England and Algeria. The odds to win the World Cup prior to the tournament starting had England as the 3rd favorite while Algeria was one of the biggest long shots of all, in front of only New Zealand, North Korea and Honduras.

What makes this situation particularly strong for the English side is the fact that their backs are up against the wall. The tie to the USA has put them in a must win situation. The last thing England wants is to be in a situation where they have to win their final game against Slovenia to advance. Especially with Slovenia perhaps playing for just a tie in the game.

Here England gets a shot at one of the worst teams in the tournament and certainly the worst team in their group. Anything less than a convincing win here would simply be unacceptable for English fans. A loss would be epic to say the least. A tie would be a major failure.

Aster watching Spain go down in defeat, I would think all of the other powers have taken note. I'd expect this match for England to be their best performance by far in Group play, which spells trouble for an outgunned Algerian team. For us, it's simply a matter of finding the best way to play this game from a betting standpoint.

Many sportsbooks don't post all of their odds on a match until the day of the game. Currently we see the following odds posted :

England -400 (as low as -345 at some sportsbooks)

Algeria +1000

Draw +475

We also see England -1.5 at a price of even money.

Again, these are average odds from several top sportsbooks. It's important that you shop for the best price.

We aren't crazy about laying -1.5 goals on any game regardless of the gap in talent. For us, it comes down to either laying 1 goal or playing the game straight up on the money line. At this point we are going to hold off until game day to bet this game as we are looking to lay -1 goal with England as a 1 Unit Key Release.

We will try to update this article with our official selection prior to the game. If we can't, we will be playing England -1 goal for one unit, or we will be playing England on the money line at -350 or better. I'm fairly certain we'll be able to play the -1 goal line on game day.

 

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