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LSU vs. Vanderbilt

Betting Line: LSU -10

9/11/10

LSU travels to take on Vanderbilt this week in a game that saw LSU open as a -10.5 favorite before sportsbooks took some early Vandy money dropping the line to 9.5 in most spots. However, LSU money came in Tuesday afternoon while this was being written and we tend to agree with that move. Both teams are in off their opening week performances and we think we have these teams pegged, although Vandy did play better than we expected.

Going in we felt LSU was still down a notch from their high point of a few years back and after their performance against what amounted to half of a North Carolina team, we think we were right. No question the outcome would have been very different had the Tarheels been at full strength. Make no mistake, this is still a good LSU team. They did dominate both sides of the ball for 3 quarters, and were the better team last week, but you have to take into account the full scope of that game. LSU should be concerned with not being able to finish games. It's a problem that's plagued this team for several years now. Having a team on the ropes yet not being able to put them away. The fact that it happened again, against a North Carolina  team basically in shambles, is cause for concern.

Vanderbilt played better than we expected. They outgained Northwestern 432-365 and while it looked at times as though Northwestern was going to pull away, Vandy didn't give up. It was a long day for their secondary as they made Northwestern QB Dan Persa look like Joe Montana going 19-21 and 221 yards.

So we have an LSU team not as good as the LSU teams of years past and a Vandy team who played better than expected in week 1, which means take the +10 points, right? Maybe not. We still think Bobby Johnson saw the writing on the wall when he stepped down at Vandy and we also feel Vandy may be the perfect anecdote for the struggling LSU offense, who was dead last a year ago in the SEC and is now 11th in the SEC after one week of play.

History tells us there is a huge talent gap between Vanderbilt and LSU. Heck, history tells us their is a huge talent gap between Vanderbilt and the rest of the SEC for the most part, and nothing has happened in the last year to change that. In fact, if anything, the gap has become wider. Losing Bobby Johnson should only magnify that gap. The pressure is on Les Miles at LSU. Anything less than a solid win this week will only stir the pot. We expect the talent to win out here as the problems at Vandy become evident. We love underdogs here at Bettorsworld, but not in this spot. LSU -10


BETTING TRENDS

LSU
LSU is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LSU is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LSU's last 6 games
LSU is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LSU is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of LSU's last 18 games on the road
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vanderbilt

VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Vanderbilt's last 9 games
Vanderbilt is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games at home
Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LSU

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