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Switzerland vs. Spain
Betting Analysis and Prediction
6/16/10
Wednesday's three games are Chile vs. Honduras, Spain vs. Switzerland and South Africa vs. Uruguay. We already have a play on Chile over Honduras which you can view here. In this article we'll offer a Key Release on the Spain vs. Switzerland game. Also check in here prior to game time to see if we find any value with the South Africa vs. Uruguay game.
As for Spain over the Swiss, what's not to like. Other than the odds that is. Most sportsbooks have Spain as at least a -400 favorite. The Swiss are +1100 and the draw is +435. If you want to take the draw out of the equation you can lay -1.5 goals at a price of -105 with Spain or you can take +1.5 goals with Switzerland also at -105.
Spain, along with Brazil, are favored to win the World Cup. Most experts agree that this Spanish team is the best Spain has ever produced and is among the best teams in Europe in general over that last 30 years or so. They come into the World Cup in perfect form having won their last 10 and by large margins, including a 6-0 thrashing of Poland their last time out. They outscored their opponents in the 10 games leading up to the Cup by a 28-5 margin! (Switzerland comes in having lost 3 or 4). In fact Spain lost just once since the 2006 World Cup and that loss came last summer in the final of the Confederations Cup when the USA knocked them off 2-0.
Spain is 37-1-2 their last 40 games. They have won 24 of their last 25.
Spain has played the Swiss twice in World Cup play winning both games and outscoring the Swiss 5-1. They have played a total of 18 times in their history with Spain winning 15 times along with 3 draws. The Swiss have never beaten Spain. There's nothing to suggest this time around will be any different against the best Spanish team ever.
One of the stories circulating in an attempt to add some juice to this matchup is that Switzerland managed to advance in 2006 and did so without allowing a single goal in 4 World Cup tournament games. It's important to note however that this Swiss team isn't anywhere near as good as the 2006 version. It's also important to note that in 2006, their toughest game in group play came against France, a 0-0 draw. Their other games were against Togo and South Korea.
Bottom line is, the talent gap between these two teams is like night and day. Switzerland will be playing this game "not to lose". Kind of like a boxer simply trying not to get knocked out by holding and clinching. Spain will be looking to light it up.
The Swiss are all defense and no offense. There's no way they can keep pace with the rapid fire Spanish scoring machine. The play here is obviously on Spain. The trick here is finding the bet with the most value. Truthfully, while laying odds of -400 or more isn't preferred, it's hardly an overlay when you take into account both teams recent form. Believe it or not there's probably some value in the -400. -600 or more would seem about right. We have better options though.
We're going to lay -1.5 goals with Spain at -105 for a 1/2 unit Key Release. We plan on making another 1/2 unit investment on this game as well as more of the top sportsbooks post odds on this match. So please check back on this page late Tuesday Night Eastern Time, or very early Wednesday morning, Eastern Time, for an additional selection on this game.
**Additional Play Spain -1 -190 for 1/2 unit