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UAB vs. Central Florida

Betting Line: Central Fla -12

10/6/10

Wednesday Night Football

 

A Conference USA clash between University of Alabama-Birmingham and Central Florida University will take place in Orlando, Wednesday night, October 6th. The Knights bring a 2-2(1-1) record into the match-up against the Blazers who hold a 1-3(0-2) record, respectively. Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando features synthetic turf for its playing surface. This will be no surprise for the UAB team whose home stadium also uses a turf surface for their home field. Tentative game-time weather conditions call for 65-70 degrees Fahrenheit with 63 percent humidity and clear skies. A light, 6 mph wind is expected to be blowing from the north, which will be straight up and down the grid iron at Bright House Networks stadium.

UAB features a 2 headed offense consisting of quarterbacks Bryan Ellis (56.3%) and David Isabelle (46.8%). Isabelle is a serious rushing threat with 59 attempts on the year with a 5.5 average. UAB's top back, Pat Shed, only boasts 32 attempts. However Shed's average is 7.7 yards and he also shares in the kick returns with top receiver Frantrell Forrest. Bryan Ellis handles the majority of the air game for UAB. Ellis has had 103 passing attempts with 58 completions for 777 yards creating a 7.5 ypa. Ellis will see a slight majority of the snaps, however, he has thrown 3 interceptions compared to Isabelle's 2. Frantrell Forrest appears to be the favorite receiving target for the UAB quarterback duo at 17 receptions with a 15.4 yard average. Mike Jones and Jackie Williams also seem to be good targets holding 19.0 and 14.6 averages, respectively.

UAB lost by a field goal in an overtime thriller in their most recent game, a week and a half ago against the Tennessee Volunteers. Playing tough against a down, but still classy team like the Volunteers shows that UAB is a real football team prepared to play tough against high class competition. If they can hang with an SEC team they can hang with UCF.  

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Central Florida also features a rush potent quarterback in Jeff Godfrey with Rob Calabrese as backup. Godfrey has 59 passing attempts with 36 completions for a 61% average and he has rushed for over 200 yards on 43 attempts. Ronnie Weaver has been the most successful back for the Knights boasting a 5.9 ypa and 205 total yards. Jonathan Davis had been doing the dirty work for the Knights with 54 rushing attempts for 184 total yards. As far as receiving, Central Florida has 3 main weapons; AJ Guyton, Brian Watters and Kamar Aiken. Guyton is the main target with 16 receptions for 201 yards while Watters and Aiken have had 12 and 10 receptions and each average about 13 yards, respectively. Quincy McDuffie could provide a spark on special teams for Central Florida holding a 93 yard long return on the year.

The Knights also will have had about a week and half break since their last game which was a 4 point loss, visiting a strong Kansas St team. Central Florida's schedule, so far, has played out on par; 2 wins against lower class teams and 2 losses against higher class teams.

Wagering odds for this match-up have Central Florida as a 12 point home favorite against the spread. Some betting trends to consider are; Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last game following a loss, the Knights are also 5-0 Against the spread vs. a team with a losing record. Blazer trends are not quite as strong; 5-11-2 ATS  in their last 18 October games.

We have Central Florida winning this one by a predicted margin of 17 points, 31-14. No much of a cushion, so we'll tread lightly here. Central Florida -12