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North Carolina vs. Florida State

Betting Preview and Prediction

3/2/11
 
The Florida State Seminoles (20-8, 10-4 ACC) already own a home win over #4 Duke this season en route to a perfect conference record at the Donald L. Tucker Center.  The Seminoles will try to finish the home part of their schedule unbeaten there in league play when they host the 13th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday.
 
In fact, Florida State’s only two losses at home this season came against #1 Ohio State and #14 Florida back in November.  Since then, the Seminoles have won their last nine home games, going 4-1-2 against the spread in the seven that were on the board.  They are also 4-1 in their last five games since getting blown out in an 89-69 loss at North Carolina on February 6.
 
The lone loss during that stretch came at Maryland 78-62 a week ago.  In the other four games, Florida State played outstanding defense, limiting opponents to an average of 61 points.  The Seminoles have seen the UNDER cash three times in their last four games and will try to slow the tempo like they did in a 66-61 upset of the Blue Devils back on January 12.  They limited Duke to just 24 first-half points in that game and held off a late rally after leading by as many as 11 points.

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The Tar Heels have not been limited by too many teams this season but have seen the UNDER go 5-1 in their last six games as opponents have tried to slow them down.  They have scored 73 points or more in nine of their last 11 games, going 9-2 ATS in those games. 
 
North Carolina is coming off an 87-76 home win against the Terrapins on Sunday behind a team-high 25 points from Tyler Zeller, who had not scored more than 18 in the previous four games.  Zeller scored 16 in the last meeting with Florida State, one of four Tar Heels to finish in double figures.  As a team, they shot nearly 56 percent from the field (34 of 61) and connected on 8 of 20 attempts from 3-point range.
 
With Duke’s loss at Virginia Tech on Saturday, North Carolina can win the conference’s regular-season title with a victory at Florida State and another at home against the Blue Devils on Saturday.  The Tar Heels lost at home to the Seminoles last year 77-67 but won the last road meeting two years ago, 80-77.

Our model once again predicts a 3 point road win for the Tar Heels.

Predicted Score - North Carolina 70 Florida State 67

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