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Week 1 NFL Pick with Analysis

As the NFL season progresses our NFL write ups and picks will increase. The NFL is the most difficult sport of them all to handicap. Our approach, for the most part, requires at least 4 weeks of play before we get involved in a more serious way. So, for the time being, we will take a quick look at every game on the board and offer our best opinion.

 

Steelers at Ravens - The Steelers knocked the Ravens out of the playoffs a year ago and now Baltimore gets a chance for a little revenge. Revenge in the NFL is a very weak angle when compared to college, however, considering that playoff loss is still fresh in the minds of the Ravens, it might work here. With this number we're just being asked to pick a winner. Ravens at home. Ravens -1.5

 

Lions at Bucs - The Lions are a team that has been on the rise. A gradual rise, but a rise nonetheless. We love QB Matthew Stafford and would take him over the Bucs Josh Freeman any day. Tampa Bay is on a 3-15 spread run at home and is 2-7 against the number in openers. The Lions were profitable against the number a year ago and we think it continues here. Lions +1.5

 

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Falcons at Bears - nice matchup between two playoff teams. The Falcons were a great play on the road last year but that's countered by the Bears success as a home dog (a 13-4 ATS run). The key here is whether the Bears can protect Cutler. Last year they couldn't and the Falcons do a great job getting after the QB. We prefer Ryan over Cutler. We'll lay the small price with the Falcons on the road. Atlanta -2.5 -120 at 5 Dimes

 

Bills at Chiefs - Cassell was listed as questionable for the Chiefs but is now probable. Arrowhead is one of the loudest, if not THE loudest stadiums in the NFL and a tough place for any visiting team. Chiefs have done some damage over the years on opening day so at less than a TD, we'll give them a shot. Chiefs -5.5

 

Colts at Texans - Peyton Manning is perhaps the only player in the NFL worth a touchdown in the betting line. Ok, maybe Tom Brady would be the other. The Texans were a 1.5 point favorite but with Manning out now sit at -8.5. But if you can't have Manning, why not a veteran QB with 9 lives who has been to the Super Bowl and has been a winner his entire career? Hey, this is the Texans, not the Packers or Steelers. Not having Manning will make the rest of the team step up. We'd like to see the number continue to rise. The Texans might get the win here, but not necessarily the cover, Colts +8.5

 

Eagles at Rams - Rams in off a 7-9 year and improving steadily. Eagles 10-6 a year ago but may be headed in the other direction. Nice spot here for the Rams to start off on the right  foot and give their fans hope. Good chance of this one going to the wire so we'll gladly +4.5 in a game we think the Rams can win outright. Rams +4.5

 

Bengals at Browns - Things are a mess in Cinci due to the Carson Palmer situation but the Browns as a favorite of almost a TD? No thanks. We'll take out chance with the Bengals. Bengals +6.5

 

Titans at Jags - Titans will miss Jeff Fisher, but maybe not so much in this one. Jags inexperienced at QB after letting Garrard go while Titans have acquired veteran Matt Hasselbeck which may be enough to put them over the top here. Titans +2.5

 

Giants at Redskins - This series not what it used to be due to Skins recent slide. Shanahan likely to get the Skins turned around but might take some time. Rex Grossman and John Beck, ouch! The spot is small enough here for us to lay the small number with the superior team. Giants -3

 

Panthers at Cards - It should take the Panthers some time to climb out of the basement. Not so sure Cam Newton is the answer. Good in college doesn't always translate to good in the pro's and rarely translates when it's the first start, not to mention first game of the year period. Then again, the Cards can't stop the run so expect Newton to pile up some yards on the ground. Might be enough to keep it close. Panthers +7

 

Seahawks at 49ers - 49ers have had the upper hand in this one recently and the departure of Jeff Hasselbeck should be the start of the demise of the Seattle Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Harbaugh era begins in the Bay area and we're looking for it to begin with a "W". 49ers -5.5

 

Vikings at Chargers - Laying anything more than a TD in the NFL can be hazardous to your bankroll. But there's no doubt a talent gap here. The Chargers still have all the pieces in place to make a run while the Vikings bring in new coach Frazier and Mcnabb at QB. Mcnabb is a positive addition to the roster but it will take some time. Gotta lay it here. Chargers -8.5

 

Cowboys at Jets - Great way to kick off the Sunday Night football campaign. This one being billed at the battle of the Ryan's with Rex the head coach of the Jets and Rob the new defensive coordinator of the Cowboys. We like the stability of the Jets here when compared to the Cowboys with new coaches, new players, etc. Sanchez has some potent weapons to get the ball to and while Plaxico Burress may be a step slower, he's still a step faster than most. Look for big things from him. We side with Rex and company here. Jets -4.5

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