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NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

11/6/11

Falcons at Seahawks - Mediocre vs. Bad here. Matty Ice vs. Curtis Painter is good vs. Bad, big edge there. Falcons have put together two wins in a row and have to figure that will continue here. Falcons -7

 

Bucs at Saints - Saints lost to these Bucs 26-20 a few weeks ago. They bounced back the following week with a 62-7 win over the Colts. In fact, they have lost twice this year and both times followed up that loss with a win by a large margin. We'll call for that to happen a 3rd time here as the Bucs should have the Saints undivided attention in this rematch. Saints -8

 

Browns at Texans - Browns can't score. Their highest point production game of the year came against the Colts when they scored 27. It's been 17 points or less in all other games. We're never crazy about laying big numbers in the NFL and would never play this game in the real world. However, for the sake of making a pick on these pages, we'll go with the Texans. Texans -10.5.

 

Jets at Bills - The Jets have beaten Miami, Jax and San Diego, all at home and all teams they should have beaten. They also beat the Cowboys, at home, in a game that could have gone either way. On the road, they are winless and that's against the Raiders, Ravens and Pats. The Bills are undefeated at home and sit on top of the AFC East standings tied with the Pats. Their losses were both by last second field goals. When you think Bills, you think offense but their yards per point number on defense actually a very good 18. The Bills look to be among the NFL's best while the Jets have been inconsistent and don't yet resemble the two teams that played in back to back title games. The number is low enough that we're just asked to pick a straight up winner here. That would have to be the Bills who we think are the better team. Bills -2

 

Dolphins at Chiefs - Chiefs are hot. Fish are not. You have to worry about a letdown for KC, in off a short week after having played on Monday Night. Also note the Dolphins recent losses have been by a nose while 3 of the 4 wins for the Chiefs on their winning streak have been by 5 or less. We'll take the points here. Chiefs likely by a nose. Dolphins +4

 

49ers at Redskins - The 49ers at this point are one of the best in the NFL. Their yards per point numbers are a spectacular 12 on offense and 22 on defense. Skins not bad defensively with a 17 but among the worst offensively with a 19. They are on a 3 game losing streak, no running game, turning the ball over and simply no offensive punch whatsoever. Check out the turnover differential - 49ers +10 and Skins -6. No brainer 49ers -3.5

 

Seahawks at Cowboys - The Cowboys have beaten the teams they should have and the Seahawks would fall into that category. But will it be by enough? We say no. Yards per point numbers are dead even here. Using those numbers to make a line would favor Dallas by 3. We have to take into consideration that the Cowboys have played just one pushover this year, the Rams and they beat them 34-7. But the difference between the best and the worst in the NFL is generally marginal. Seahawks did knock off the Giants on the road. Seattle +11

 

Broncos at Raiders - Would expect a better effort from both teams after blowout losses last week. Tebow has a long way to go but Palmer for the Raiders not looking like he's ready either. The Raiders are the better team here but the Broncos likely stay within this number. Broncos +8

 

Bengals at Titans - Don't look now but the Bengals are 5-2 and tied for 2nd in the AFC North. They have also covered every game but one. Titans not so bad either at 4-3 and 2nd place in the South. One model we use has the Bengals winning straight up by a score of 21-18. Another has this game dead even. Either way, points look to be worth taking here. Bengals +3

 

Rams at Cardinals - We want no part of this one. Could the Rams string together 2 wins in a row? Are the Cards not in it mentally after having blown such a big lead last week in Baltimore? A shaky call, but Rams +2

 

Giants at Pats - A rematch of Super Bowls past. No problems with the Patriots offense but that secondary, last in the NFL, is a big problem. Big Ben and the Steelers drove that point home last week, completing passes at will. For that reason, you have to give the Giants a very good chance to at the very least, stay within the number here. Giants +9

 

Packers at Chargers - Chargers return home after 3 straight road games, but this team has shown to simply not be that good. Their numbers, including their yards per point numbers which tell us so much about a team, resemble those of a last place team, not a team tied for 1st. Meanwhile, the Packers look like one of the best and go out and prove it every week. Anything less than a TD looks to be a bargain here. Packers -5.5

 

Ravens at Steelers - marquee game of the week for sure. Not going to get carried away with the Steelers win over the Patriots. Big Ben was able to slice and dice the Pats secondary, but then, who hasn't? If you look at the Steelers offensive performances against teams with a good defense, you see a 1-2 record with point productions of 7, 10 and 17 points. Well, the Ravens have a good defense. The problem with the Ravens has been consistency. Ravens players were fighting amongst themselves after losing to Jax a couple of weeks ago. Then, they forgot to show up in the 1st half last week against the Cards. At the same time, you have to be impressed with they way they were able flip the switch in the 2nd half, shutting out the Cards and coming back to win. 5 of the last 6 games in this series were decided by a TD or less and 4 have been by a field goal. If both teams show up and play their "A" game we feel the Ravens are the better of the two and have to take the points here. Ravens +3.5 (make sure you get the hook - you may need it)

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