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Pick - Analysis
Entering the season, no one expected Ole Miss to be the ranked team and Texas to be unranked in this matchup, but that's exactly where we are. Texas lost convincingly at BYU last week, which no one saw coming. Even on the road, the Longhorns were -7 point favorites. The Rebels have four road games in their first five weeks and they started off with a win at Vanderbilt due to a 75-yard TD run in the last 70 seconds. Texas is currently a -2.5 point favorite at GTBets Sportsbook.
Both teams were expected to be improved from a season ago, but the Rebels would have to improve the most if they want to win this matchup. In 2012, Texas went to Ole Miss and obliterated the Rebels on their home field, 66-31. It was pure embarrassment for the Rebels and by far the most points they gave up all year.
In that game, quarterback David Ash went wild. He only completed 19-of-23 passes, but still threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns. To go along with that, Texas ran for 350 yards as a team. As a forewarning, Texas returns 10 players from last year's offense. As for the Rebels, Bo Wallace struggled for most of the day, tossing three interceptions. The Rebels weren't actually that bad on the ground, but were forced to pass more after being down by 21 points at halftime.
As said previously, a lot of starters are returning from each team. The problem for Texas is that David Ash picked up a head injury in last weekend's loss to BYU. If he can't go, Case McCoy will likely step in, which could be a problem. Even as a senior, Texas has never really trusted McCoy at the helm. He's joined by experienced running backs like Johnathan Gray and receivers Mike Davis and Jaxon Shipley, but will that be enough? Ole Miss will most likely not allow 66 points again.
On the other end, the Rebels are a bit improved with a more experienced Wallace at QB. He played well against Vandy, although completed 31-of-47 passes for no touchdowns. He's joined by Jeff Scott in the backfield, who had the game winner in their first game. Also with Donte Moncrief out wide (144 yards and one TD in last year's matchup) along with a couple others, the Rebels can score.
Ole Miss is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Texas is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. If Ash can't go, a lot of people will be all over the Rebels in this game. But if Ash can go, it's another story for this Texas offense, that will look to rebound from last week's loss.
As much as we'd like to back the revenge angle for Ole Miss here, we can't fathom back to back losses for Mack Brown and the Longhorns. A loss here and Brown may as well pack his bags. We'll back Texas at home minus the pot. Texas -2.5
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