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San Jose State
Pick - Analysis
Utah State hits to road this week as -8.5 point favorites over San Jose State at GTBets sportsbook. Utah State has won the last 4 games in this series including last years 49-27 win. As of this writing on Monday morning there is no total posted just yet.
Utah State is a very good football team that unfortunately finds itself with 2 losses just 4 games into the season. They lost a tight game in their opener to Utah, 30-26 and then lost a tight game last week at USC in a game we used as a Key Release. It was a game that turned out to be a defensive battle and a game that was just about dead even statistically. We felt going in that Utah State would be in the game the entire way with a chance to win it in the end and that's exactly how it played out.
San Jose is no joke either. In fact both of these teams were 11-2 a year ago, albeit against the easiest schedules in the nation. San Jose came within 3 of Stanford last year but this year was pounded by the Cardinal, 34-13. Their other loss last year came to this Utah State team. Their only win this season is a 24-0 opening week win over Sacramento State. They lost to Minnesota last week, 43-24.
The feeling here is that Utah State is the superior team. Our score prediction model has Utah State on top by a score of 33-17. The Aggies have better numbers across the board than San Jose and have performed much better against stiffer competition, rising to the occasion, but losing close games against Utah and USC.
What makes us likely back off here, is the potential for a let down. The USC game was huge for this Utah State team. Getting up for San Jose, after facing USC might be difficult. Add in the revenge motive, multiplied by 4, plus the Friday night home crowd and an ESPN audience, it makes San Jose State a live dog here.
We'll go with Utah State because that's what our numbers suggest, but tread lightly. We'd only consider it at -7 or less. Utah State -8.5
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