Utah
vs.
Colorado State
Las Vegas Bowl
Pick
12/20/14
The Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl features the Pac-12 vs. MWC with two teams that used to be Conference foes. This meeting should be a lot different than the last time they met in 2010 with Utah dominating. The Utes are -4.5 point favorites at betonline coming out of the better conference.
In the last meeting between these teams, Utah destroyed Colorado State 59-6 in their final MWC season showing everyone that they deserved to jump to a better conference. Things have changed a bit, as CSU has suddenly become a force under Jim McElwain. Unfortunately for the Rams, he is gone to Florida, which means offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will be the interim head coach for the bowl Game.
The Rams are 10-2 and have a shot of reaching 11 wins, something that has only been done one other time in the school’s history (1997 under Sonny LUbick). They actually had a slight shot to be ranked at the end of the regular season, but fell to Air Force in the season finale by three points. But just how good is this team? They beat Colorado 31-17 in the opener, which is better than Utah’s 38-34 win at Colorado. The Rams also won at Boston College 24-21. Playing in the MWC, it’s hard to get a good read on teams, as the Conference is right in between the bigger and smaller ones.
Overall, this has been the best season Utah has had since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. It’s their first with a winning Conference record (5-4) and it hasn’t been easy. The Utes have had impressive Conference wins throughout the year, beating UCLA and Stanford on the road, while coming back late to top USC.
These teams are slightly similar, as in they are solid in almost every phase of the Game. Defense has been big for both of these teams, but one thing that stands out is Utah’s deficiencies at quarterback, where they’ve had problems all year long.
Travis Wilson leads the Utes at quarterback right now, but really only won the job toward the end of the year because Kendal Thompson picked up a season-ending injury. Wilson has been respectable and he willed the team to a win against Colorado tossing for 311 yards and three TDs, but he is inconsistent, and hard to trust. But playing against a MWC team, things could be a little different. Utah will still likely pound the ground Game with Devontae Booker (1,350 yards, nine TDs). against weaker Pac-12 defenses, Booker was huge for the Utes.
As for the CSU defense, while they only allowed 23.4 points per Game on the year, they did allow 31 points to teams like Wyoming and San Jose State. But then holding Colorado to only 17 is impressive, and that was after being down 17-7 early in the third quarter.
Utah’s defense is their strong suit, but their numbers aren’t as good, mainly because they play in a better conference. Holding teams like USC and Arizona State to under 21 points isn’t easy.
The Rams have a balanced attack led by senior QB Garrett Grayson that has torched the MWC. Grayson is completing almost 65% of his passes for 32 TDs and only six INTs. Top target Rashard Higgins (1,640 yards, 17 TDs) has been largely unstoppable. Combine that with running back Dee Hart (1,254 yards, 16 TDs) who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and not many could slow this offense down, non-Conference opponents included.
Utah isn’t a team to blowout their opponent, so CSU should be within striking distance for most of the way. And if it comes down to the Fourth quarter, the better offense has the edge. But if Travis Wilson is on his Game, there’s no telling who the better offense will be in this Game.
The Utes are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl Games. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-Conference Games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine Games following an ATS loss. Both teams are 8-4 ATS for the season. Trends in this matchup don’t mean too much as it’s been a while since they last played.
Colorado State +3 over Utah – All of my numbers as well as the Score Prediction model say UTAH is the side here. But the motivational edge has to go to the Rams. Utah is the highest profile team to be playing such an early bowl Game. They were at one point late in the year, still in the PAC-12 Title picture. They had their sights set MUCH higher than this bowl. They lost 3 of 5 down the stretch including getting blown out by Arizona 42-10. They ended the year by squeaking by Colorado, who Colorado State beat 31-17 to start the year. Injuries hurt the Utes this year and the season eventually took it’s toll. Colorado State is off a fantastic 10-2 season and has gotten better each of the last 3 years. They lose their coach to the Gators (won’t be on the sidelines) however a win here would be the perfect send off. The cherry on top of a remarkable turn around for this program
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