Week 8
Free NFL Picks
against the Spread
10/26/14
Time flies as we are now in week 8 of the NFL season. Here is a look at each and every Game on the board this Sunday with a pick and a few comments about each Game. Note that in the later portion of he NFL Schedule and of course the playoffs, we’ll be able to devote more time to NFL write ups!
Lions -3.5 over Falcons – You’re going to have to get up early for this one. The Game kicks off at 9:30 AM est. and will be played in England. Neither of these teams is getting it done offensively however one team is tied for 2nd when using yards per point numbers to rank the defense and that would be the Lions.
Bucs/Vikings Under 42.5 – Not interested in backing either side. In 4 of their 6 Games this year, the Bucs have scored 17 points or less. In 5 of their 7 Games this year, the Vikings have scored 16 points or less. We’ll go under here.
Patriots -5.5 over Bears – Pats a tad better than Bears defensively but much better offensively. Their +9 turnover differential ranks 2nd in the NFL and since that setback in KC they seem to have stepped it up a notch. That’s reflected in Our Score Prediction model when using only the last 4 Games. When using season to date numbers, the model says Pats by 3. When using only the last 4 Games, it’s Pats by 9.
Chiefs -7 over Rams – Tough call here. Both of these teams have played at least 4 Games against the best the NFL has to offer and neither has been embarrassed and both have notched wins against a top team or two in the case of KC. We’re going to play this one strictly by the numbers and Our numbers say KC is the right side.
Seattle/Carolina Over 44.5 – When ranking defenses using yards per point, the Seahawks rank 8th worst in the NFL. A far cry from that Super Bowl winning “D” from a year ago. Panthers “D” ranks 9th worst and has given up on average 35 points per Game over the last 5 Games. This one figures to be in the 50’s.
Bills +3 over Jets – The Jets really have no business being favored over anyone. Neither team much of a threat offensively however the Bills defense at least has a pulse.
Dolphins -5.5 over Jags – Not about to hop on the Jags bandwagon after last weeks win over the Browns. Need to see more. This is a weak call though.
Texans -2 over Titans – Zach Mettenberger gets the start for Tennessee this week. The Texans have lost 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 however, they are still the better team in this one. With the number at -2, we’re just being asked to pick a winner. We’ll go against the rookie QB and take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball despite their recent slide.
Bengals pk over Ravens – We’re going against Our numbers here, all of which say the Ravens are the right side. The Bengals are a disappointing 0-2-1 their last 3 after a 3-0 start and were blown out in those losses. This is a revenge Game for the Ravens after losing at home to Cinci in week 1 and holding the Bengals to all field goals until a 77 yard TD pass to AJ Green with 4:58 remaining cliNChed it for the Bengals. To top it all of, Green may not play this week and if he does, he’ll be playing hurt. But this really is a season defining Game for the Bengals here and a chance to right the ship and keep themselves in contention. A loss here and Cinci is toast. We’ll buck Our own numbers and call for Cinci to rise to the occasion.
Cardinals pk over Eagles – These two look evenly matched and this one has the potential to be the Game of the day. In a Game likely decided by turnovers, we have to note the Cards +7 differential, which is 3rd best in the NFL while the Eagles -5 is 5th worst. The Cards “D” win this one.
Colts -3 over Steelers – We keep wanting to stick a fork in the Steelers and the Big Ben era, however, they keep managing to stick around and come up with wins every time we get ready to count them out. But in this spot, just can’t see the Steelers offense keeping up with Andrew LUck and the Colts who have now won 5 straight.
Raiders +7 over Browns – Really want to root for these Browns. They may be on the rise, but have a ways to go. Two of their 3 wins this year have come by 2 points or less and hey, they just lost to the Jags! When we run Our model using only the last 4 Games worth of data, the margin of victory for the Browns goes from 7 (using season to date) to 1. That sounds about right. No reason to trust Browns as TD favs.
Packers +1.5 over Saints – We’ve been saying all year that the Saints are living off their past reputation. They just aren’t very good. Yes, they have been money in the bank when playing at home in recent years under Sean Payton but those Saints teams were MUCH more talented than this buNCh. If you were to remove the team names here and all of the bagGAge, good or bad, that goes along with those names and were to simply handicap this Game based on what they have done this year, the Packers would be favored by close to a TD here. This is the NFL where any team can beat any other and as long as Drew Brees is behind center slinging passes for the Saints, they are dangerous. However, if this Game were to be played 100 times, the Packers would win 55+. That means, the Packers are the right side here.