Ohio State
vs.
Penn State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/25/14
This was looking like a big Conference Game a month ago, but that has changed drastically with the way Penn State has fallen off. Even on the road in this Game, the Buckeyes are double-digit -14 point favorites in Happy Valley, at 5 dimes sportsbook.
At one point, the loss of Braxton Miller was looking deadly for Ohio State. They were coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech and didn’t look good against Navy. Instead of wilting, they have come out and scored at least 50 points in Four straight Games while covering in every one of those. While none of those opponents were highly ranked, it’s still impressive.
Penn State is kind of an opposite story after starting 4-0. The Nittany Lions were a bit lucky to escape a couple of those wins, and their deficiencies have started to show up in the last couple Games as they lost to Northwestern and Michigan in back-to-back weeks. While the defense is looking stout, the offense has fluttered and they’re only scoring 21.2 points per Game.
At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a repeat of last year’s Game when the Buckeyes won 63-14 at home as 15-point favorites. Christian Hackenberg didn’t play in that Game, but it’s not like he’s looking great this year.
J.T. Barrett has come alive for Ohio State, which isn’t good for the rest of the Big Ten. Barrett is completing 65.2% of his passes to go with 20 TDs and 5 INTs through the air, plus 383 rushing yards and Four rushing TDs. Ezekiel Elliott has also been a stud out of the backfield with 531 yards and Four touchdowns. While this isn’t Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde, Barrett and Elliott are looking solid in their first year as starters.
The Buckeyes defense isn’t at the same level as a year ago either, but when you’re scoring so much, that doesn’t matter and it shouldn’t matter in this Game with the rate that PSU is playing at. against better teams like Michigan State and Minnesota, OSU’s susceptible defense may be a bigger question.
As for the Nittany Lions, they just haven’t been able to do much on the offensive end lately. After Hackenberg tossed for over 300 yards in his first three Games, he hasn’t surpassed 216 in a Game since. In his last Four Games, Hackenberg has one touchdown and three interceptions. Many thought to see a jump from last year’s Big Ten Freshman of the Year, but it looks like he’s actually taken a step backward. With a running Game that’s averaging a poor 2.8 yards per carry as a team, it’s hard to see when, if ever, this unit will correct itself.
The Buckeyes are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Games following an ATS win and 28-12-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Games following a straight up loss, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home Games, but only 1-4 ATS in their last five Big Ten Games. Ohio State has covered Four of the last five meetings between these schools.
A whopping 88% of the action on this Game has come in on Ohio State. Anytime we see that much of an imbalance in the action, we tread lightly. No Game is ever that much of a slam dunk from a betting standpoint and a Penn State cover would not shock us at all here.
That being said, we understand the 88% figure as it’s very difficult to make a case for Penn State. Their defense is formidable and figures to slow down the Buckeyes. 50+ for Ohio State is doubtful this week however it’s hard to see this anemic offense being able to trade points with the Buckeyes.
We’re going to back the Nittany Lions here but urge you to use caution. Our model actually has Penn State staying within the number here predicting a 26-17 Ohio State win. Combined with going against the public, we’ll take the double digits. Penn State +14