Michigan State
vs.
Louisville
Elite 8
Pick – Analysis
3/29/15
At this point, we can throw the seeds out the door. This is Tom Izzo vs. Rick Pitino. In the first region to have its No. 1 and 2 seeds lose before reaching the Sweet 16 in 11 years, it was only fitting that two of the best coaches in the college Game met in the Elite 8. Michigan State — and Izzo — opened as -2.5 point favorites at 5Dimes.
That’s right, the No. 7 seed is favored by a couple points in the Elite 8. That doesn’t happen often, or ever. See, no one cares about seeds. The Spartans once again won by defense in their comeback against Oklahoma. After being down by 10 points early, they chipped away at the Sooners until grabbing their first lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the Game. Oklahoma got off to a quick start and ended up shooting 36.4% from the field, 4-of-17 from deep. Michigan State wasn’t much better percentage wise, but hit five more threes and got costly offensive boards when it mattered.
Louisville put an impressive performance in after losing at home to NC State earlier in the season. The Cardinals got contributions from everyone they needed (Four players in double figures, Anton Gill 7 off the bench) and held their own on the boards. They dominated the paint for much of the Game as well. The Cardinals are not a good shooting team, but that hasn’t been a problem in the Tournament, shooting 50% against the Wolfpack (mostly because of their paint points).
The matchup to watch in this Game is going to be Montrezl Harrell vs. Branden Dawson. Both are super athletic and super important to their teams. Harrell has a size advantage, but Dawson just got done guarding a similarly sized player in TaShawn Thomas. The height and athleticism of Harrell will give Dawson issues on the offensive end, but Dawson’s importance will be on the defensive end and on the boards for Michigan State. It’s going to be a blood bath between these two guys.
Terry Rozier and freshman Quentin Snider have been everything for Louisville in this Tournament as Snider has fit in nicely as a starter since Chris Jones was kicked off the team. While these two aren’t great shooters from deep, they make a living with short pull-ups and getting to the rim. They’ll be guarded by Travis Trice, Tum Tum Nairn and Bryn Forbes for most of the Game, all of who have played great defense in the Tournament.
Another fun matchup will be Wayne Blackshear vs. Denzel Valentine. Both have the ability to go off for 20 points, but Valentine is probably the most important to his team. Valentine often sets up his teammates, but is also one of MSU’s best shooters.
It’ll be interesting how Michigan State attacks the matchup zone. It wouldn’t be surprising for Forbes to see more cOurt time again above Nairn, but that could change if the Spartans have trouble with pressure. Michigan State has plenty of shooters and they’ll need to hit shots, but also attack the glass as they usually do.
Teams love to play zone against Louisville because of their shooting struggles, but it’s hard to see an Izzo-led team doing that. They have the players to match up with the Cardinals and have been like glue so far in the Tourney.
If the Cardinals shoot 50% from the field again, they’ll probably win. But that’s going to be tough against this Michigan State defense and when the Cardinals aren’t hitting their shots, they struggle (obviously). The Spartans have the shooters and athletes, it’ll just depend on if they can make their shots or not because the battle of the boards will go both ways. Senior Travis Trice is averaging more than 20 points per Game in the Tourney and is 10-of-22 from deep. If that continues, MSU advances.