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Ravens

vs.

Giants

NFL Pick

Week 6

10/16/16

When Baltimore heads to New York in Week 6 it'll be a matchup of two teams in desperate need of a win. The Ravens were hot early, winning each of their first three games, but they've faded of late, losing their last two by a combined seven points. Similarly, the Giants won their first two but have lost consecutive games since. Baltimore is one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North, in second place. New York is in last place in the NFC East, two game behind the Dallas Cowboys.

Joe Flacco is on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, but he's doing so at career-low in yards per pass attempt at 5.94 and has only thrown five touchdowns versus four interceptions. Flacco is simply throwing more passes than he ever has this season. He's on pace for 691 attempts this season. In Flacco's previous eight seasons in the NFL, the most attempted passes he's ever had was 614 in 2013 -- the only year in which he threw 600 passes or more. The Giants haven't been especially good against the pass, allowing over 260 yards per game through the air -- 20th in the NFL.

Eli Manning has been working fairly efficiently so far, completing a career-high 63.6% of his passes so far. It helps with a receiving corps that includes the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz, but Manning, like Flacco, has thrown an identical five touchdowns and four interceptions in 2016. With a more athletic and younger group of receivers it would make since to bet on Manning having the better game in this one.

Manning will be going up against one of the NFL's statistically best units, but I tend to believe the Ravens numbers have been inflated a little due to its schedule so far. Baltimore ranks 3rd overall and 5th against the pass, but they opened by playing three of the league's worst pass offenses.

Baltimore's Terrance West has been the most dynamic running threat of any player in this matchup. He's averaging 5.0 yards per attempt on the season, but is only averaging a little over 60 yards per game. The Giants' defense has been pretty good against the run, surrendering 96.6 yards per game -- 12th-best in the NFL.

The feeling here is that the Giants are the better team. At 2-3, their backs are up against the wall and we think they get it done at home by just enough to get the money. Giants -2.5


 

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