Toledo
vs.
Western Michigan
College Football Pick
11/25/16
Western Michigan probably doesn’t have a shot at the College Football Playoff, but there’s no harm in trying. The Broncos enter their regular season finale against Toledo undefeated, having carved through the rest of the MAC. With a big win here and in the MAC title Game, they’ll be the talk of a lot of CFB rankings.
It’s worth knowing that this team isn’t just a flash in the pan, at least since Zach Terrell has been quarterback. since finishing with one win in 2013, the Broncos have been a top team in the Conference every year. The last couple years they’ve actually lost, but at least battled against teams like Virginia Tech, Michigan State and Ohio State.
This season was a little different with an easier Schedule. They dispatched both Northwestern and Illinois on the road, as well as getting revenge on Georgia Southern who beat them a year ago. In MAC play, WMU hasn’t really been tested, although Kent State put up a good fight a couple weeks ago. With a big win against Toledo, who has the second-best record in the conference, the Broncos still need a lot to go in their favor to have a chance at the top Four.
But some of these MAC teams can’t be discredited. Toledo only has two losses this year and one of those was on the road at BYU in a shootout. Ohio, a possible title Game opponent, fought Tennessee in a 28-19 loss.
As for this Game, the Broncos actually upset the Rockets a year ago in the same situation, costing Toledo the West division title. Getting revenge is at the front of Toledo’s minds. That previous meeting was a shootout with WMU winning 35-30 and that’s exactly what could happen again. Once again, both of these teams have great offenses, with each defense having its own issues.
Terrell has been incredible for the Broncos in his senior season, not only completing 70% of his passes, but only throwing one interception. While he doesn’t throw it as many as some QBs because he doesn’t need to, he still reaches 30 attempts here and there. Their running Game has been just as good with Jarvion Franklin returning to his freshman levels, at least to an extent. This offense’s ability to move the chains on the ground and through the air is what separates them from the rest of the conference.
However, there’s no question Toledo can keep up as they’re averaging nearly 40 points per Game themselves. The Rockets have run a few more plays, but quarterback Logan Woodside is already at 40 passing touchdowns and has at least three TDs in every Game this season. That’s an incredible stat to go with a 70% completion rate, as well. Kareem Hunt is just as good as Franklin on the ground, although averages a few less per carry.
Neither one of these teams has a standout defense, which means there should be plenty of points between them. Of course, the advantage goes to the home team that’s still undefeated. But can revenge get them back?
since starting the season 5-0 ATS, the Broncos have fallen back to earth as bettors realized how good they are. The Rockets are kind of similar, having covered their first Four, but now at 7-4 ATS for the season.
Our Pick – Western Michigan -9