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Colorado State

vs.

Alabama

College Football

Free  Pick

9/16/17

Much like last week, this spread is around where bettors think Alabama will take its foot off the pedal. Against Fresno State, the Crimson Tide dominated 28-3 in the first half and then slowed things up to win 41-10, failing to cover. This game is expected to be similar to last year’s 38-10 result against Western Kentucky as the Tide are -28.5 point home favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Colorado State looked like a legitimate threat to challenge for the MWC this season after gashing through Oregon State in the opener, but a 17-3 loss to Colorado in its next game changed that. If the Rams can only score three points against the Buffs, then there’s no reason to believe they’ll score more than 10 points in this game unless they get multiple touchdowns late against the ‘Bama backups.

The question will be if CSU can stop Alabama at least once or twice from scoring a touchdown. That remains unclear at this point, but the Rams have been solid since giving up 20 points to the Beavers in the first half of their first game. Holding Colorado to 17 points is a decent performance, although CSU will likely have tons of trouble dealing with Alabama’s offensive line.

Alabama hasn’t done anything surprising in its first two wins. As expected, the Tide have dominated through its run game and defensive front. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 36 passes while leading the team with 209 rushing yards. The Rams clearly haven’t seen an offense like this, but it’s worrisome they were ran through by Colorado’s running back for 140 yards on 7.4 yards per carry. If Hurts doesn’t have success, someone will for Alabama whether it’s Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough or Najee Harris. None of those guys have broken out yet, but they all have the talent to do so.

The Tide could get out to an early 28-point or larger lead and bettors will hope the score remains the same. For the Rams to cover, it may require some late scoring, which isn’t a huge stretch. Nick Stevens gives experience at quarterback, although his four interceptions early could be a recipe for a pick-six against the ‘Bama defense. Colorado State may try and run the ball through Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews, but it’s doubtful that will produce much against the Alabama front. Everything will be on Stevens to put points on the board and it’s possible as he’s reached 300 yards in every game so far.

The tough thing with this line is that it’s exactly where Alabama either takes its foot off the gas or where its opponent gets a late touchdown to cover. There’s no doubt the Tide are going to win and dominate this game, the question is how many stops CSU can get and if Stevens can lead the offense to at least a touchdown. After scoring three points against Colorado, it’ll be tough to back the Rams against a better all-around team. Alabama -28.5 and over 54.5

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