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Iowa State

vs.

Oklahoma

College Football

Free Pick

10/7/17

After escaping past Baylor, Oklahoma got a week to recoup and get its heads right for what should be a blowout against Iowa State. And after that Baylor game, a lot of teams will be ready to upset the Sooners, although the Cyclones probably aren’t one of them. Playing at home, Oklahoma was an early -28 point favorite at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Just last year, this game finished a lot closer than anyone thought. The Cyclones came in with a 1-7 record and battled the No. 14 ranked Sooners to a 34-24 loss. Oklahoma has been popular for those kinds of performances throughout the years and that was seen in a recent win against Baylor. Some will back the Sooners because they expect this team to respond, and that could be the way to go as they are 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss.

Oklahoma’s offense remains one of the best in the nation and that’s the first selling point in this game. Baker Mayfield has his eyes set on the Heisman, already with 13 touchdowns and zero picks through four games. After gashing up the Ohio State defense, there won’t be many teams in the Big 12 that can stop him from putting up points. The Sooners have been fine on the ground, but maybe not as dominant as recent seasons. Abdul Adams and Trey Sermon lead the way for a team averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Iowa State has been all over in terms of defender from giving up 44 points against Iowa to 17 versus Texas last week. The Cyclones were expected to be improved this season, and they are, but to what extent? It’ll be hard to back them in Norman with a defense that couldn't stop the Hawkeyes.

To cover this game, Iowa State will have to score and that could be possible against the OU defense. Quarterback Jacob Park has flashed potential in the early season, but is still too inconsistent to trust after throwing three picks against the Longhorns. This team’s best bet will be to run the ball as much as possible behind David Montgomery (355 yards, 5.5 yards per carry). If that works, Iowa State will be in business to cover. Of course, the Cyclones still have to put points on the board, with at least 20 being the goal. They ran for 130 yards in last year’s game and if they can do that again, that may be enough to cover.

Oklahoma’s defense is the biggest question per usual after giving up 41 points to Baylor last game. With a game against Texas on the schedule next, there’s also the problem with looking ahead. The Sooners have the ability to drop 50 points in this game, but it’s hard to put faith in the defense stopping Iowa State to less than 20 points.

This spread is a bit big, even for a high-scoring team like Oklahoma. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and have covered their last seven at home. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss.

Our Pick - Iowa St +30

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