Iowa State
vs.
West Virginia
College Football
Free Pick
11/4/17
Before the season, this looked like another ho-hum Game in the Big 12 Schedule. But here we are and Iowa State has suddenly put its hat into the ring for the best team in the conference. West Virginia isn’t a walkover, but still sits in fifth place with more losses expected. Still, not many trust ISU, which is why the Mountaineers were -2.5 home favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
No previous matchups can be looked at for this Game because Iowa State is a completely different team than any time in recent history. For starters, the Cyclones are No. 14 in the AP Poll. Let that sink in. They’ve already beaten two top five teams with one on the road at Oklahoma and the other against TCU last week in which they held the Horned Frogs to seven points. One thing West Virginia can do is Scorepoints so that’s the first thing for this Game. The Mountaineers already have a few losses, but they’ve scored against everyone, although their wins have also been sketchy because they can’t stop anyone.
Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt has taken the Big 12 by storm after being in a community college two years ago. He’s undefeated in his Four Games as a starter, completing 66.7% of his passes for nine touchdowns. His numbers don’t pop off the page, but he’s made the offense click with running back David Montgomery doing the rest, carrying the ball 74 times in the last three Games. But the even bigger reason for the winning is a defense that has suddenly turned elite. since giving up 44 points to Iowa, the Cyclones have displayed one of the better defenses in the Big 12 and that’s the main matchup to watch in this Game.
Will Grier is leading West Virginia to 42.8 points per Game and has shown no signs of slowing down, even when his team loses. Grier threw Four picks last week, but that was mostly an aberration, as he threw only five in the seven Games before that. Grier still has 28 touchdowns with 15 of them going to top wide out David Sills. But after getting no ground Game going last week, the Mountaineers need a little more from Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy. If not, Grier will have to throw more under pressure and that could lead to more interceptions yet again.
Iowa State should Scoreon West Virginia because this defense hasn’t stopped anyone all season. The question will be what the Cyclones can do against Grier and company. If they stop the running Game completely, that could lead to some Grier turnovers similar to last week. This is an intriguing matchup with home field having less of a factor during the day for West Virginia.
The Cyclones have covered their last Four and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road Games. The Mountaineers don’t have many trends, but are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – Iowa St +3