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Mississippi State

vs.

Georgia

College Football

Free Pick

9/23/17

It didn’t take long for this matchup to turn into an intriguing contest. Georgia might be the favorite to win the SEC East, but need to get a win in this game for that to happen. After taking on Mississippi State, the Bulldogs have to travel to Tennessee and Vanderbilt in back-to-back weeks. In a surprising Top 25 matchup, Georgia is a -7 point favorite at home with the line jumping early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Not many expected these teams to be in this situation. Georgia grabbed an improbable win at Notre Dame a couple weeks ago with its backup quarterback leading the way. Mississippi State is coming off an even more impressive win, having handled LSU thoroughly 37-7 last week as a touchdown-plus road dog. In a battle of Bulldogs, there are a number of ways this game can turn out.

Starting with the home team, Jake Fromm has done just enough to lead the team, but he may have to do more in this one. Fromm has yet to pass for more than 165 yards as he hasn’t needed to. MSU’s defense is still an unknown without having played a solid offense yet, so that’s something tough to bet on. Either way, Georgia will continue its run-first approach between Nick Chubb (290 yards) and Sony Michel (160 yards). If that works to plan then Georgia will be in business as long as its defense can do the rest.

However, Mississippi State won’t go down easily and they just kept LSU’s run-first offense in check. While all of LSU’s running backs went for more than five yards per carry, it wasn’t enough because they got close to nothing from quarterback. And so far, Fromm hasn’t been challenged enough so there’s no guarantee he’s up to the challenge if needed.

Georgia’s defense will get a good test here, but one thing we know is that it’s one of the better units in the country. The Bulldogs have looked great in their early games and stood out in the win over Notre Dame. While the Irish have ran through their other opponents, they managed just 1.5 yards per carry behind a dual-threat quarterback, which is exactly what Mississippi State brings to the table.

Then again, Nick Fitzgerald had no issues moving the ball on LSU last week, so there’s nothing stopping him from doing the same in this game. Fitzgerald has been great early on and has looked much improved from a year ago. He has 240 rushing yards and five touchdowns to go with seven more through the air, while Aeris Williams has added 336 yards on the ground on 7.0 yards per carry. LSU was supposed to be too big of a challenge for these guys last week, but that didn’t matter in the end. If MSU can put in a similar performance against this Georgia defense, that would be extremely impressive. But doing that on the road is going to take a bit more.

Georgia got a lot of early money and they may end up blowing this game open, but with how Mississippi State has looked, it’ll be hard not to back them. Fitzgerald looks confident and has the ability to keep this game close by himself. If the Bulldogs can keep Chubb and Michel from going off, this should be a tight game throughout. Miss State +4


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