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NC State

vs.

Boston College

College Football

Free Pick

11/11/17

NC State has lost its last two games, but it’s hard to fault them for losing to the No. 3 and No. 4 teams in the country. In fact, there’s still a slight chance the Wolfpack reach the ACC title game if Clemson improbably falls to FSU this weekend. Either way, they have to keep winning and were -3 point road favorites against Boston College at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

NC State may be favored, but it was only a year ago that Boston College ended its 12-game ACC losing streak in this matchup. The Eagles used defense and a late touchdown to steal the game 21-14 on the road, while NC State managed just 1.3 yards per carry as a team. If that happens again, there’s a decent chance BC wins again.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they don’t have that same level of defense anymore and are giving up more than 200 rushing yards per game, which is surprisingly more than the passing yards per game allowed. That being the case, this team still has dominated its last two games holding Virginia and FSU to a combined 13 points after beating Louisville before that.

NC State hasn’t been able to run the ball the last couple of weeks and that should change here. But if Reggie Gallaspy and Nyheim Hines fail to surpass 100 yards on the ground, that’s a recipe for another loss. Quarterback Ryan Finley has been solid and threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson, but this has been an offense that’s had balanced success and limited turnovers. Finley didn’t have an interception in his first seven games, but has tossed three picks in the last two.

The problem for Boston College in this game will be trying to get past the NC State defensive line, which is its strong suit. The Eagles are a run-first offense led by freshman AJ Dillon, who has a ridiculous 96 carries in the last three games, while previous starter Jon Hilliman is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. If those guys can’t run the ball, BC will have trouble moving the chains with Anthony Brown a liability at quarterback with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. This offense has looked better in recent games, but will be hard to trust against a defense that could lock down Dillon.

On paper, NC State is the better team, but with how Boston College has played, this game will be decided in the final quarter, similar to last year’s matchup. The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in their last six ACC games and six road games. The Eagles have covered in their last five conference games and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these schools.

Our Pick - BC +3

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